The OECD raises estimates on Italian GDP: + 0.8% in 2015, 1.4% in 2016 to 2017 – Il Sole 24 Ore

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This article was published November 9, 2015 at 12:15.
The last change is the 9 November 2015 at 18:28.

The OECD believes the Italian recovery. This is confirmed by scrolling the latest edition of its Economic Outlook, which estimates the growth of our economy require an expansion of GDP of 0.8% for the fourth quarter of this year and by 1.4% in both the in 2016 that in 2017, after the retreat of 0.4% it the 2014. This is a slight upward revision compared to the forecasts contained in Interim Economic Outlook in September (+ 0.7% in 2015, +1.3 % in 2016).

Estimates positive for all the fundamental
The good news, even if those expressed in decimal numbers, concern a bit ‘all the fundamental our economy. The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development expects in fact a public debt rising to 134.3% of GDP this year (from 132.3% in 2014), but also provides for a down to 133.5% in 2016 and 131.8% in 2017. The deficit / GDP is estimated respectively at 2.6%, 2.2% and 1.6 percent. In other words, the public deficit “will continue to decline, with the economic recovery that increases tax revenues and the interest burden on public debt is falling” .For the employment forecast is for a 0.8% increase this ‘year, 1.4% in 2016 and 1% in 2017. The unemployment rate from 12.7% recorded in 2014 expected to decline gradually to 12.3% this year, to 11.7% in in 2016 and 11% in 2017. Inflation will remain moderate (0.2% this year followed by 0.8% in 2016 and 1.2% in 2017).

Priority shift taxation from labor to consumption
The document released today by the OECD conteien also several recommendations to Italy, in particular that of “move permanently weight taxation from labor to consumption and to the real estate and increase environmental taxes’, two choices that, if implemented, would strengthen “the foundations for more growth ‘stronger, more’ inclusive and more ‘environmentally friendly’. OECD experts observe in particular that the extension of the cuts to social contributions is a priority “to consolidate the recovery of the labor market.” On the environmental front, the suggestion is rather to give more space to payment mechanisms such as congestion charges (the so-called congestion charges) and sul’inquinamento while vehicle taxation should be structured to reflect the carbon dioxide emissions and other environmental issues.

Bad bank to “manage” the suffering banking
As for the factors that hamper our recovery, the Economic Outlook identifies a major problem the Italian economy in the ballast of suffering, which “undermines investment growth ‘and compresses the credit. “The decline in bank lending to the private sector is finally fading,” adds the OECD, “with loans to households showing more dynamic ‘positive business services.” “Recent government initiatives, such as bankruptcy procedures more ‘effective and more time’ short for the cancellation of bad debts from bank balance sheets, are positive steps to revive the credit market,” he continues the OECD believes that a real turning point could come by creating a “bad bank”, which, however, could take a long time because of the limits on aid state.

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