Italy brakes: GDP grows by 0.2%, below expectations. At the risk the government’s goal – The Republic

Milan – This was said yesterday the president of the ECB, Mario Draghi, reiterated today the numbers Istat: Eurozone growth remains slow. That of Italy in particular. Especially when compared with France and Germany that seemed to cross a tailing off. The Italian economy in the third quarter of the year grew by 0.2% against + 0.4% in the first quarter and + 0.3% in the second. Certainly the data on an annual basis (+ 0.9% on the same period of 2014) is the best since 2011 and accelerating from the previous quarter, but the experts were expecting more robust growth, at least 0.3% to strengthen government estimates predict that for the entire 2015 a progression of 0.9%. To date, the change acquired (one that would end the year in the case of zero growth in the last three months) is 0.6%, while the Istat expected a 0.7%.

For analysts Unicredit growth “is a surprise to the bottom”, but depends on the “weakness of the emerging economies.” At this point, however, “it is likely that the annual growth of 0.9%, the government’s target for 2015 is not achieved,” while still “can hit the 0.8% estimated by Unicredit for this’ year”. The strong risk, though, is to not go over 0.7%, but much will depend on the exchange rate of which exports will benefit. Even for Confcommercio it is “a negative surprise” that threatens to undermine the objective of growth of 1% set by ambition by the local shopkeepers.

In short, despite the goodwill, Italy is unable to keep pace with the European neighbors over the same period recorded a progessione by 0.3% compared to the period from April to June and by 1.2 % (France) and 1.7% (Germany) on an annual basis. Istat stresses that the growth of the Italian GDP in the third quarter was helped by the internal market, as has been the ‘ballast’ economy abroad. “On the demand side, there is a positive contribution to the national component (gross inventory) and a negative component of net foreign” explains fact Istat.

In datteglio, the third quarter of 2015 It had four working days more in the previous quarter and a working day more than in the third quarter of 2014. It adds that the growth is cyclical synthesis of an increase in value added in all the main sectors (agriculture, industry and services). Looking further abroad, in the same period, GDP, notes the Istat, increased in quarterly terms by 0.4% in the US and 0.5% in the UK. In trend terms, there has been an increase of 2% in the US and 2.3% in the UK.

Eurozone. The third quarter Eurozone GDP grew 0.3% compared to the previous year and 1.6% from a year earlier. In second it was increased by 0.4% and 1.5% on year. In the 28′s GDP rose 0.4% on the quarter and 1.9% on year, while in the second quarter had scored respectively 0.4% and 1.9%.