Milan – Waiting to see the data as Black Friday began the Christmas season in the US, next week will be crucial for the global economy: the monetary policy meeting of the ECB is added, in fact a plethora of important macroeconomic data from the United States besides the expected entry of the yuan as a ‘reserve assets’ on international markets. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the related volatility of oil prices are complicating the picture that is next week’s potentially one of the most important moments of the year for global investors.
Euro and ECB. Pending then the ECB meeting on Thursday, when Mario Draghi is expected to announce an expansion of quantitative easing, the euro remains weak near the lows of seven months against the dollar: the expectations of further expansion of unconventional operations of the ECB are high, but one of the options on the table of the Dragons is to cut even the deposit rate, that is what banks pay now (since the rate was -0.2%) when they leave their money parked at the ECB. The Q and prohibits to purchase securities that make less than the limit, but since the fall of spreads now are many bonds were yielding negative in Germany are below zero yields up to seven years. This involves a problem of “scarcity” in the market of securities potentially be purchased by the ECB.
Inflation and US jobs. This week, however, it is also full of events economic: on the front European attention is focused on the flash estimate of consumer prices for November. HICP inflation could earn 0.1 percentage points to 0.2% in November and is expected to be driven mainly by slightly rising prices of food, alcohol and tobacco, thereby offsetting a further decline in the price of energy yearly. The “Core” inflation, meanwhile, should remain broadly stable around its October level of 1.1%. Although inflation in non-energy industrial goods is expected to increase further in the wake of a weaker euro, services price inflation is expected to moderate slightly in November, it is estimated, from 1.3% to its level of July- September 1.2%. On the American attention is taken instead before ISM index, then he gave the most anticipated: the labor market. Estimates indicate that growth of 170,000, with the unemployment rate steady at 5.0%. After the good performance in October, however, it seems unlikely to expect the data to deter the Fed to carry out a rate hike in mid-December.
Monday.
Japan: retail sales, October; industrial production, October; speech Kuroda (BOJ)
Germany: retail sales, October
Italy: consumer prices, in November; industrial producer prices, October
US: Chicago PMI index, November
Tuesday.
Japan: Manufacturing PMI final, November
Italy: PMI manufacturing, in November; monthly unemployment rate, October; final reading of GDP for the third quarter
France: PMI manufacturing final, November
Germany: rate dissocupazione, November; PMI manufacturing in November
Eurozone: PMI manufacturing final, November; unemployment rate, October
UK: PMI Manufacturing, November
US: Construction spending, in October; ISM manufacturing index, November; vehicle sales, November
Wednesday.
Eurozone inflation, October
Use: new jobs, ADP estimate, in November; Productivity third trimestreinale third trim.
Thursday.
France: unemployment rate, third quarter; PMI services, November
Italy: PMI services, November
Germany: PMI services, November
Eurozone Composite PMI final, November; retail sales, October; ECB rate announcement; press conference Draghi
UK: PMI services, November
US: factory orders, in October; ISM non-manufacturing index, November
Friday.
Japan: household confidence, November
Germany: Factory orders, October
Spain : industrial production, October
US: trade balance, in October; employment report, November
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