The seminar
Milan , November 23, 2015 – 20:22
The credit companies are sharing and with a new trend: are the banks to to hunt for good companies that lend money. “The direct perception is that for several months has reversed the mechanism of competition: the first were the companies, especially those in difficulty, to ask money; some months are branch managers who take the list of companies bankable, the go to find and offer them loans at favorable conditions. ” To take the picture is Antonio Patuelli, president of ABI, during a seminar in Ravenna. The number one Italian Banking Association explained that the cost of credit has become for companies Italian one of the lowest in Europe, also lower than the German one. And this is the result of a “blatant competition ‘between the banks, who in order to lend money and not have to return, they offer it at attractive conditions. The rules provide that the ECB money borrowed on favorable terms (LTRO and Tltro) by banks should be aimed at enterprises, otherwise be returned to Frankfurt. In the first nine months of the year new loans to businesses grew by 16.2% over the same period of 2014.
Loans and suffering
The credit increase in line with the economy, also for regulatory reasons, unlike the pre-crisis period. ABI estimates a ratio of loans / GDP ratio tends to be stable in the future and a direct business access to the financial market. In 2015 the Italian bank loans will grow, but a bit ‘below forecasts failing to exceed 1% (expected at + 0.8%) while the sufferings 2016 will still be a difficult year and a turnaround is expected for 2017: “For applications, in July data that will update in December, we predicted a growth a little ‘more than 1% at year-end – said the deputy director general of ABI, Gianfranco Torriero -. In fact, we expect that at the end of year we will be on a positive but less than 1%. ” “For the suffering, however, we believe that in 2017 there may be a reversal before the dynamics of stock” from 10.8% expected this year to 4.1% in 2016 and -1.2% in 2017.
The profitability
In this scenario, characterized by a change in legislation that imposed new capital requirements, the central issue for banks is profitability, as He stressed the director general Giovanni Sabatini: “The problem of problems for the banking sector in Europe, is a return to profitability. This is related to the earthquake regulations and the digital revolution in a scene with unprecedented zero interest rates that are becoming even negative. If we look at the time horizon for a while ‘before the crisis (2006) and 2015 profitability level of ROE (return on equity index, ed ) was nearly halved from a 12% We arrive in about 7% of profitability. ” With the new regulatory framework, said Sabatini, the required bank capital has almost doubled, but the cost of capital on the market was not reduced and posing a problem of sustainability of the models in the long term. However, there are signs of recovery in profitability. However, with greater allocation of regulatory capital provided by Basel 3, will halve the amount of loans payable.
Employment
The ongoing transformation in the banking world will have an impact on employment. For Giancarlo Durante, head of the union leadership of ABI, we are faced with “a trend of decline, the problem is figuring out what is the curve of this decline”: “We will have to manage a fairly substantial number of redundancies with the tools we have to available to the industry, allowing you to manage the phenomenon without major social tensions. ” Even with mergers, added Durante, “I think it’s reasonable to expect redundancies, I consider it absolutely normal.” The manager Abi stressed that “in recent years we have managed almost 50,000 redundancies, but the system was able to absorb them with inexpensive tools.” During the second report parts present in the workplace it is to “every 2 outputs an input.”
November 23, 2015 (modified November 23, 2015 | 21:57)
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