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This time Renzi can not blame the “owls” or opposition of his party who are against. The Istat data speak clear and are yet another cold shower on optimistic forecasts of the government. The economy no longer has the negative sign but running in slow motion. In the third quarter the GDP grew by a modest 0.2% and is down from 0.4% in the first quarter and 0.3% in the second. The experts expect an increase of at least 0.3%, to validate the estimates of the government for 2015 which indicated an increase of 0.9%.
In today it expected to close the year with growth of 0.6%, while the Istat also expected a better result (+ 0.7%). And since on these forecasts, the government has calibrated the law of stability which also is already in deficit admittedly, less than a momentum later this year and an acceleration to the start of the next, the higher cost of this poor growth download in 2016. Which means that to stay in the European goals of deficit, we have to tighten their belts. Not only. Italy continues to do worse than France and Germany who also go through a lull. During the same period domestic product of the 11 Eurozone countries increased by 0.3% and that of the 28 EU countries by 0.4%.
And that makes it more complicated granting greater flexibility sought by Renzi in Brussels.
Istat explains that the result for the quarter have contributed positively consumption and investment while exports fell.
Analysts at Unicredit believe that it will be difficult to realize the government’s target of a 0.9% growth for 2015. The” surprise to the bottom “would be due to the” weakness of the emerging economies. ” For technicians of the bank there is a “strong risk” to not go over 0.7%, but much will depend on the exchange rate of which exports will benefit. And this also is the estimate of the OECD and the rating agencies Standard & amp; Poor’s and Moody’s.
For Confcommercio is a “negative surprise” that removes the growth target of 1% set by the association with a healthy dose of ambition . According to Istat Confesercenti certify that the recovery has so far been driven by domestic demand. “Consumption is back in positive territory – says an analysis of the association – but given the still very high unemployment rates it is a weak recovery.” To return to pre-crisis levels, will be needed, said Confesercenti, at least 5 years.
Renzi is forced to admit that “he hoped in a 0.3%” and that ” we must do much more. ” The Treasury in the evening launched reassuring messages. The director of economic analysis, Riccardo Barbieri, said that “given the GDP is a bit ‘disappointing but does not affect the annual objectives.” But to hit the 0.9% it is based on the government’s economic policy “will serve a good fourth quarter,” he admitted. Renzi also emphasized that “the climate is that Italy is divided, then there may be one more or less than 0.1.”
not good even on the debt front public in September increased by 7.0 billion, reaching 2.1917 trillion. In the first nine months of the year, the general government debt increased by 55.8 billion. Also increased the total fees. In the first nine months of 2015 it was $ 288.8 billion, an increase of 3.4% compared to 2014. The Standard & amp; Poor’s confirmed its rating but threatens to lower it if “persist rigidities in labor markets, services and products, which are holding back the growth.”
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