Milan – continuing the legislative process of the Stability Law and the growing criticism of the economic policy measures of the government Renzi. After the remarks made yesterday by the technicians of the House and Senate that the abolition of Tasi will trouble all the mayors and the cry by the alarm of the governor of Piedmont, Sergio Chiamparino, who fears the end of the Regions (“I have not made proposals subversive “he later explained), now it’s up to the Court of Auditors and the Bank of Italy, which did not spare criticism of the executive. Istat, however, comes the counting of savings for businesses (4 billion) and especially the support for measures to combat poverty among children: 10% of them in absolute poverty, 1.45 million. By another observatory, ie Frankfurt, the ECB noted in a study related to the Economic Bulletin of prossiima publication, that “the flexibility of the Stability Pact should be used carefully to avoid the risk of abuse.” A reference, indirect, to the request flag to raise of 0.2 percent of GDP the debt, as a result of the emergency migrants. A request that is in addition to those related to the implementation of structural reforms and investments.
Back in Italy, according to the judiciary accounting, the choice of economic policy made by the Government in the Law of Stability “utilizes maximum spaces flexibility available reducing margins explicitly protecting public accounts, and leaves in the background unresolved (clauses, public contracts, pensions) and important issues (such as the final reorganization of the system of financing of local government bodies. “Topics already raised, however, by the President INPS, Tito Boeri, according to which the question is bound to leave esodati heavy aftermath necessitating octave safeguard nononstante week just introduced in the Stability.
Tasi. During his hearing, the President of the Court of Auditors, Raffaele Squitieri, focused on the abolition of Tasi and IMU on the first house, explaining that the “main source of funds operated entities regard to housing than the first house, which will live on the dualism Tasi-IMU, with the result that the majority of services provided by the municipalities will bear indivisible rule on non-residents and then people who are unable to operate the ‘political control’ on the work of the directors by voting “. For Bank of Italy, however, cutting the Tasi will have limited impact on consumption: “Better to cut taxes on production than on the house.”
VAT. The law also Stability “reflects the temporary nature of some roofs and the persistence of safeguard clauses postponed to the future.” According Squitieri a “riassoribimento clauses” in 2017 and in 2018 “will require the identification of significant budget cuts or revenue increases, albeit rendered less onerous by the benefits of higher growth.” In this context, therefore, “economic conditions” in the country “could recommend the adoption of measures on fiscal spending (for example dealing with a complex intervention on VAT reduced rates or on the same structure of VAT rates) possibly muffled (but not canceled ) with relief measures “. For Bank of Italy also included “the action related to the safeguard clauses, the drop in taxes is marginal (0.1 points).”
The lesson Varoufakis to Italy
Bank of Italy. The Deputy Director General of the Bank of Italy, Federico Signorini, focused on explaining that reduce cash circulation – the annual cost of management is estimated 8-10 billion EUR – “remains a goal to be pursued not least for reasons of efficiency. In our country, the propensity to use cash remains much higher than the European average. E ‘should be encouraged transactions made with payment cards, reducing the costs and the fees paid by operators “. As the use of cash, “the mere point of view of the tracking of transactions, as the threshold is lower the better, but there are practical limits to consider. There are factors to rule out a priori the possibility of a raising the general limit from one thousand to three thousand euro “.
Expenditure interest debt. On the one hand the Bank of Italy stressed the need to reduce debt to keep the confidence of the markets, on the other hand the Court of Auditors points out that the decline in yields in the emissions of government bonds could result in a hoard of which the Government It could benefit from this year and even more in 2016: “For the current year, the interest payments will be lower than the estimate contained in the government Def is about 1.5 billion to rise to 6.7 billion in 2016, to reach 9.4 billion in 2018 and then decline to 7.6 billion in 2019 “.
Istat. more positive cues coming Istat, for which the financial benefit on growth “to a slight degree in 2016 (a tenth of a point of GDP) and the most significant in 2017 (three tenths of a point of GDP)”. President George Breed indicated in hearing that the cut of IRES and the maxi-depreciation will result in a tax savings for corporations amounted to EUR 4 billion. Strong focus on poverty among children: “The 10% of children living in our country lives in absolute poverty,” she said in the dossier. “The phenomenon affects 571mila families, for a total of 1 million and 45 thousand children” that “430,000 foreigners.” Figure “doubled compared to the 2011 estimate and triple compared to 2008″. Institute also comes a critical survey on taxes on the house, which disproportionately large impact on households owning less well, with a percentage of income paid in 2013 IMU 1% of income. Although the pickup in absolute terms more relevant to higher incomes, the incidence is half the bands for the richest, falling 0.5%.
The Office of the Parliamentary Budget . The body that applies for EU budgetary documents Italian continues to support the line taken at the time of the update note of Def: macro forecasts of the government are in line with the experts surveyed for the biennium dall’Upb 2015-2016, while for the 2017-2018 “we need to confirm a lack of prudence of the forecast” appearing “overly optimistic.” This was stated by President UPB, Giuseppe Pisauro. The UPB has also pointed out that the Budget 2016 provides “permanent commitments” such as cutting Tasi and IRES, “that in the first year are financed largely by temporary resources, such as budgetary flexibility and voluntary disclosure “. The accounts in the following years will be guaranteed by the dynamics of the economy, which is assumed positive albeit with elements of risk, and again from safeguards on VAT.
Even Pisauro then reflected on ‘opportunity to activate the lever VAT: should it be “confirmed the intention indicated in Def April disable clauses” for 2017 and 2018, will have to “find resources to operate for a percentage point of GDP”. The report points out that, if the decommissioning of the clauses is complete in 2016, “It promises to essentially maintain as from 2017, the increases in VAT. It therefore remains in place a safeguard clause to 15 billion in 2017 and 20 billion in later years. ” In fact, these questions involve “the difficulty of interpretation programs at mid-term fiscal policy on what will happen after there is room for doubt important.” Another possibility, “is that the reduction of IRES 2017 and the announced reduction Irpef for 2018 will be funded for those years at least in part by the increase in VAT.” “In fact – noted Pisauro – so it would follow the EU recommendation to shift the tax burden from labor and business to consumer.”
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