Milan – Salt estimate on Italian growth by Istat and the European Commission. Both align their macroeconomic indications to government estimates, contained within the Stability. In fact Brussels and the Institute of Statistics gave their green light to the scenario outlined by the Minister Padoan for 2015 and 2016, a kind of encouragement for the budget package presented by the executive and before Parliament: the final judgment European expected for 16 November. “The recovery in Italy is more and more self-sufficient and less dependent on temporary factors such as weakening of the euro, falling oil prices and easing of monetary policy of the ECB,” said Vice President of the EU Commission, Valdis Dombrovskis , that “there are still margins for further improvement.”
Ready commented the premier Matteo Renzi: “There are growing day after day, the positive data on our economy. Today it says Istat, and even in Europe the music to us is changing. Growth stronger than expected, share consumption, and – attention – in the forecast falls curve debt. More work and more confidence, the reforms work. ” “It really seems that we are
emerging from the crisis and then the recovery is a real prospect,” he said, instead, the President Sergio Mattarella from Hanoi commenting to reporters the latest data on EU GDP . Nevertheless, there are voices of those who call the downside risks to this scenario, as did the ECB citing risks from emerging markets and those linked to low inflation.
GDP, deficit / GDP and debt. According to Brussels, today updated economic forecasts eurozone GDP growth in 2016 in Italy will be 1.5% (after 0.9% in 2015) and in 2017 by 1.4 %. The government estimates a GDP growth of 1.6% in 2015. It corrects so slightly higher forecasts in May, when Brussels indicated for 2016 by 1.4%. The economic recovery in Italy sista strengthening and growth will increase in 2016 and in 2017 with oil prices that remain low and domestic demand “improved”, able to “drive” the increase in GDP next year.
The Deficit / GDP will be nominal 2.6% this year and 2.3% next year. Government estimates indicate 2.2% for 2015 and 1.1% for next year. The EU does not affect the estimates of the Italian deficit in 2015 (2.6%) and revises upwards the data on 2016 (2.3% instead of 2% expected in May and 2.2% included by the government in Def). This “despite the positive growth prospects”, writes Brussels, who also sees a “worsening of the structural deficit by about half a point.”
As for debt , Brussels plans 132 2% in 2016 (after 133% in 2015) and 130% in 2017, while the government expects this year’s 132.8%, 131.4% next year and 127.9% in 2017. The improvement in the outlook for this year, says the European Commission, is due in particular to external factors such as the decline in oil prices, the accommodative monetary policy of the European Central Bank, and “a relatively weak euro.”
In line with Brussels also to Istat . The Institute of Statistics estimated growth of gross domestic product (GDP), Italian 0.9% in real terms this year, followed by an increase of 1.4% in 2016 and in 2017. The figure for 2015 It is in line with the government, that next year expects a + 1.6%. Compared to May, the growth of this year rose by 0.2 points. Istat explains: “The more lively foreign trade and particularly imports, led to a downward revision in the contribution of foreign demand of 0.5 percentage points. Domestic demand excluding inventories was however revised rise of 0.4 percentage points as a result of cmiglioramento dynamics of household consumption. ” But external factors, linked to emerging markets, remain doubts the ECB. For another, the same Istat stresses that “the framework outlined forecasting is subject to downside risks, related to a possible more pronounced slowdown in international trade and the impact of the safeguard clauses in 2017″.
Today’s report, it says that domestic demand excluding inventories will contribute positively to GDP growth of 0.7 percentage points while net exports will subtract a tenth of a percentage point to the expansion of the product. This year there will be a significant contribution from inventories (+0.3 percentage points). The strengthening of the economy will determine, in 2016 and in 2017, a growing contribution of domestic demand (+1.2 percentage points) which will accompany a slightly positive contribution from net foreign demand (+0.1 percentage points).
Consumption. On the consumption side, household spending will increase this year by 0.8% in real terms, as a result of improved conditions in the labor market and income available. In 2016, it is expected a strengthening of private consumption (+ 1.2%) that will continue in 2017 (+ 1.1%). Istat says: “In the current year is expected resumption of the process of capital accumulation (+ 1.1%), stimulated by the improvement of access to credit and the strengthening of the recovery in production expectations . The investments will accelerate both in 2016 (+ 2.6%), partly due to fiscal policy measures in favor of businesses, both in 2017 (up 3.0%). “
Jobs. Istat, incorporating the effects of the Budget provides that employment will increase this year (+ 0.6% in terms of work units), accompanied by a reduction in the unemployment rate will stand at 12.1%. In 2016, the work unit will record a more significant increase (+ 0.9%) while the unemployment rate will mark a further decline, reaching 11.5%. In 2017 work units will increase at a slower pace (+ 0.7%), in the presence of a further slight drop in the unemployment rate (11.3%). The framework outlined forecasting is subject to downside risks, related to a possible more pronounced slowdown in international trade and the impact of the safeguard clauses in 2017. The highest increases in investments, linked to the effects of EU and national policies could instead lead to the upside.
On the labor front, according to the EU Commission, the unemployment in Italy will fall below 12% in 2016: the figure will be 12.2% in 2015 to drop to 11.8% next year (11.6% in 2017). The previous estimate, last May, was 12.4% in both cases. As stated in the chapter on Italy economic forecasts published today, “employment will continue to increase in 2016 and in 2017, but more in terms of hours worked and the number of employees.” “The relief of three years for employers indefinitely supported the increase in employment seen in the first half of the year”, writes Brussels, referring to Italy, in the economic estimates. A trend that will continue in 2015 and 2016 since the scheme was extended, with partial relief, in the law of stability.
Inflation. The annual inflation rate in Italy will amount to 0.2% this year, to 1% in 2016 and 1.9% in 2017. In the spring estimates, the Commission had predicted a rate of inflation of 0.2% this year and 1.8% next, figure was revised down.
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