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Italian Post enter the operational phase of the privatization and asks small savers between 800 million and one billion euro. To collect them, the group led by Francesco Caio will also exploit its post office network popular all over the national territory. “The distribution activity – reads the statement of the offer – will be seen in the context of the service of investment advice provided by the Italian Post Office” which, on the one hand, will sell its shares and, second, to advise its customers to buy them in potential conflicts of interest . The public offering and the Monday 12 has reserved for retail investors 30% of the shares put sale by the Treasury that points to cash transaction between 2.7 and 3.7 billion. The remaining 70 percent will end up in the hands of large investors who are willing to pay between 6 and 7.5 euro per share.
To complete the operation, in short, the group led by Caio will rely on the trust that binds traditionally Italians at the Post Office. But privatization is really a bargain? For some, certainly. It is for the government to open a new season of sales of state yielding 34.7% of the company with the goal of “financial resources to be allocated to debt reduction,” as a statement of the Ministry of Economy. It is for the bank that will pocket at least fifteen million fees . It is for Caio which earns IPO bonus still under development and the media in which speakers will end a good chunk of the 15 million of expenses for the placement. It is doubtful that it is for the citizens and for new members for the group’s future will depend on the real capacity to implement a transformation plan demanding that goes also for painful cuts.
As for the public purse, in fact, the operation, which will close on October 22, is to cut prices compared with analysts’ forecasts. Only until a few days ago, in fact, bank Imi , bank branch locating and creditor Intesa (for 244.4 million of credit lines), attributed to Post a value between the 8.95 and the 11.42 billion euro, while Goldman Sachs spoke of a digit in 7.9 and 10.5 billion. In the end, however, the company was valued between 7.8 and 9, 79 billion. Of course, in volatile market conditions such as at present, to ensure the success of the offer it is preferable to lower the price rather than risk a flop. And promise the distribution of dividends 80% of the profit expected for this year and the next.
As for the new members of Post, then, The statement defines all the risk factors operation that savers will be able to subscribe with small lots (500, 2 thousand and 5 thousand titles) and an outlay of between 3 thousand and € 3,750 depending on the price final offer. The service correspondence addresses, among the weak points is the question of mail delivery every other day on which Brussels could “open an infringement procedure against Italy” as stated in the prospectus. On this theme also adds the issue of the burden “supported by the Italian Post Office” for the universal service . Caio has never made any secret of the slowdown in the postal services sector which in 2014 recorded an operating loss of 504 million. The weakness of the sector is the basis of the plan rationalization of post offices that Poste has “temporarily” suspended following protests and appeals from local authorities.
In the long list Risk taking a prominent place 2.8 billion of loans claimed by Poste against the public administration. The huge amount of loans, including even include 87 million compensation for expeditions election , had disturbed the Codacons that, in the absence of transparency, had threatened the appeal to the TAR “aims to challenge the green light of the Consob “. According to the prospectus, the issue would be solved already seen that, with a letter of the Treasury last August 7, the Ministry has undertaken “to the completion of all the steps necessary for the payment of” second “mode and deadlines consistent with the operation ongoing privatization “. But did not provide more specific details. Not only. The relationship with the Cassa is a question mark in the group’s future: in 2014 the agreement with the Fund earned 1.595 billion in commissions, but that does not mean that the performance remains in coming years. Also because, as stated in the official document of the quotation, “there is no certainty that the agreement with Cassa Depositi e Prestiti is renewed on expiry.”
As for Post Bank , the paper focuses on the commitment of the group in the risk management noting that the company has in the belly tools in derivative , “whose fair value is negative for 976 million euro at June 30, 2015 (1,672 million at 31 December 2014). ” The largest part of the statement on the financial activities of the group, however, is dedicated to Poste and Poste Vita Ensures , the hens laid the golden eggs of the Italian Post. Both are “exposed against sovereign debt, almost exclusively Italian, having invested most of its assets in government debt securities” for an amount equal to 74.55% of the investments. It goes without saying that “a deterioration in the credit rating of Italy , accompanied by an increase in the spread of Italian government bonds, would mean a reduction in the value of investments by Poste Vita and ensures Poste – warns the document – with a consequent negative effect on the solvency margin and, more generally, on the activities, the prospects and the economic and financial position and of the same group. ” Perhaps for this reason, Poste Vita decided to investing 3 billion of reserves to guarantee policyholders in brick in Europe and in the United States and has launched a tender to select one or more international managers specialized in the field. What are names such as BNP Paribas, Doughty Hanson, Hines and also MGPA, society, the latter owned by the giant Blackrock whose leaders have recently met Renzi in the United States.
Will the discount and coupon on the promise to ensure the success of the largest privatization in Europe of the new millennium? Some of the banks involved in the transaction (Banca Imi, BofA Merrill Lynch, Citigroup, Mediobanca, UniCredit, Credit Suisse, Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley and UBS) they are doing everything. Caio has over half the world to praise the quality of Poste. And the government has recently put a chip on the transaction extending for one year the monopoly of judicial contact . The word now goes to the market. With the substantial contribution of Italian small investors.
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