NEW YORK – The international agency Fitch confirmed the rating of Italy to BBB +. Although the outlook remains stable. But, warns the company, “the Italian debt is expected to remain above 120% until the end of the decade, leaving Italy highly exposed to potential adverse shocks.” Fitch also points out “the weak performance in terms of growth” from part of our country. The judgment clearly takes into account the law of stability for 2016, it launched a few days ago by the government Renzi. A budget law – it is emphasized – a total based on tax cuts, starting with the “scrapping” of the tax on first homes to get to the removal of the safeguard clauses that would have caused a rise in VAT. But – underline analysts – reform of public spending contained in the law, or the spending review, “is less ambitious than the original plans of the government.” And the increase in the deficit-GDP ratio to 2.2% compared to previous estimates of 1.8%, while on the one hand could certainly favoirire growth, on the other “damages” the objectives of cutting the deficit that the executive had previously set. The solvency of Italy – still says Fitch – it shall be ensured in particular by a diversified economy and high value-added, with moderate levels of debt in the private sector and a system of pensions sustainable. Finally, Italian banks have strengthened their capital requirements despite the long recession of recent years. In the report there is also a political evaluation. The short-term risk of a block to policy making “was held in check since Matteo Renzi became prime minister” is the analysis of Fitch. Its high popularity allowed him to make reforms, ensuring the green light also of the Parliament. However, the risk of a political bloc could increase if calasse its popularity. Among the reforms, Fitch also cites the constitutional should ensure “a more stable government” and less likely to “stall legislation.”
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