Milan – In the end the Italian growth would be 0.7%, 0.2 percentage points of GDP less than reckoned by the government (just over 3 billion Euros). And ‘what writes writes ISTAT last monthly note, that marries the recent update of the forecasts by the Office of the Parliamentary Budget. According to the Institute of Statistics, “the growth achieved by the comparison of the quarterly data adjusted for working days of 2015, including the forecast for the fourth quarter, with those of 2014 is 0.7%,” he said. Processing released today by ISTAT, however, is not entirely comparable to the estimate that the Treasury does for the year 2015. The Institute, in fact, corrected for working days, GDP (in 2015 there are 3 more compared to 2014); when calculating the annual final, which will be published in early March, the correction is not performed. The Treasury processes data ‘raw’ and therefore a higher estimate is partly explained by the difference in working days available. The fact remains that, as explained by the same UPB estimating a 0.8% raw (ie comparable to the data of MEF), everything suggests that the end result struggling to hit in the middle of the goal of a few months ago.
thus reinforcing fears for achieving the put on paper in the Budget, especially threatened by the slowdown in emerging economies and the possible repercussion on consumption arising from terrorist acts (although Christmas is seen growing by Confesercenti).
Renzi optimistic. “Some forecasts signal a potential slowdown in the recovery – wrote the President of the Council in the enews sent its supporters – Events of Paris and the crisis of the emerging countries are not really two Good news even economically. But the numbers are stronger than any assessment: in October 2014, the unemployment was at 13%, fell to 11.5% today. There are more than three hundred thousand more Italians to work when the government has taken the road of the Jobs Act. They grow loans, the GDP turned positive, share consumption, confidence is at its highest in 20 years. “
” But beyond of ‘list of more signs, what strikes me is that Italy has everything to go back to being a locomotive. Because we have stability, we are making reforms, we have room for improvement on organizational remarkable. After three years of recession we left. The speed of growth will depend now primarily by domestic consumption and investment. That’s why my invitation to believe it is not general optimism, but precise economic strategy, “said Renzi.
The document Istat. In the monthly note with prospects Italian short term, we read that “the positive trend of the Italian economy has been driven by the growth of value added in the manufacturing sector and, to a limited extent, in services. For the fourth quarter we expect continued, albeit at a moderate pace, the expansion phase began in the early months of the year. “However,” the path of growth is characterized by the current phase of the international cycle that is dampening export growth Italian “.
Analysis. The ballast to ripresina
For the fourth quarter of the year,” the short-term forecasting model indicates Istat real growth in GDP of + 0.2%, with a confidence interval of between 0 and 0.4%, “says the note. As economists have noted Intesa Sanpaolo to the publication of data on the third quarter, closed with a + 0.2%, would be necessary to jump by about one percentage point to center the bar set in the budget. Istat, moreover, states that “the positive result would help mainly the growth in consumption, in part, would be reflected on the increase in imports. Instead remain difficulties in restarting the investment cycle. This scenario is obtained from the comparison of the quarterly data adjusted for working days of 2015, including the forecast for the fourth quarter, with those of 2014 is 0.7%. “The new hint consumption reveals the To meet concerns the wave of terror: if families will close at home, as he feared the premier Renzi, will be difficult to count more on the positive contribution of domestic demand.
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