December 4 – “Without planning for the future, the collective culture is a prisoner of the news and the consensus of opinion. Families and businesses are in a fenced secure mode, but inertial: limbo italic made of halftones. Generous political commitment to reviving economic momentum. The company continues to make its development based on the long-term history, the inventiveness, the processes now winning: a mixture that characterizes the “remnant”, which leads to the lights of the stage, but the soul ‘story’ actual country “. This according to Censis the present scenario that characterizes today’s Italy. But see below on the analysis made by the company report.
A company with low self-propulsion, which does not find the taste of risk.
In ” Italy of zero point “in which short-term changes in economic indicators are still minimal, it continues to swell the bubble of precautionary savings and will not turn back the risk appetite. But there is a platform for the restart of the country: a geography of winning playing on the driver of the hybridization of sectors and traditional skills. So that they become: the new Italian style
Over the precautionary cash, zero risk: where will the money of Italian. During the year the main economic indicators changed signs and movements show up in the order of a few tenths of a percent. But in ” the Italian zero point “continues to inflate the bubble of cash precaution. This is demonstrated by the rate of inflation, nailed around zero despite the massive efforts of the ECB with the quantitative easing, as well as investment zero. It amounts to more than 4,000 billion euro value of financial assets of Italian. In four years (June 2011-June 2015) recorded an increase of 401.5 billion: + 6.2% in real terms. In the years of crisis, the portfolio composition of household financial assets sanctioned the transfer option to a strongly defensive of Italian: cash and bank deposits rose from a share of 23.6% of the total in 2007 to 30.9% in 2014, while the shares have fallen (from 31.8% to 23.7%) and bonds (from 17.6% to 10.8%). In the last twelve months (June 2014-June 2015) confirms the option of cautionary Italian, an increase of 45 billion euro liquidity (+ 6.3%) and 73 billion in insurance and pension funds (+9, 4%), and with the renewed contraction of stocks and shares (10 billion less, amounting to a reduction of 1.2%). The difference lies, however nell’impennata of mutual fund shares, a sign of loosening of the grip of anxiety 108 billion more in one year (+ 32.8%). But do not go back to the confident assumption of risk individual, aware that the venture would leave deep scars etched on their solitary personal biographies. On the other hand, the savings are still the lifeboat in the newspaper, as in the past year 3.1 million families had to play around with the savings to cover the gap of income over expenditure monthly. With regard to investments, the brick has begun to attract resources. It signals the boom in mortgage applications (+ 94.3% in January-October 2015 compared to the same period of 2014) and the trend of real estate transactions (+ 6.6% of house sales in the second quarter of 2015 compared the same period of the previous year). It spreads the propensity to make income housing stock: 560,000 Italians claim to have run an accommodation for tourists, such as holiday homes or B & amp; breakfast, generating revenues estimated at around 6 billion euro, mostly submerged. At this stage, the need for reallocation of savings in a more functional to the real economy is closely tied to the request to unfreeze shares of their income from taxation aspirated: 55.3% of Italians want the tax cut, even at the cost a reduction of public services.
The selective employment rebound after the long crisis. Since the entry into force of the Jobs Act, the labor market has seen bouncing employment to 204,000 units. We are still far from recovering the pre-crisis situation, as in the third quarter, compared to the same period in 2008, 551,000 missing jobs. The unemployment falls to 11.9%, a figure far however from 6.7% in 2008. As for the young (15-24 years) there has been a collapse in employment, continued in 2015, with a recovery time of just 9,000 units compared to the first quarter. Their unemployment rate has virtually doubled in six years, with a peak of 42.7% in 2014 and then a decrease of 1.4 CENSIS • Press release Press release CENSIS points between the first and the third quarter of this year. The female employment, however, has gained 64,000 jobs in six years and there is still an increase of 35,000 employed between the first and the third quarter of 2015. And if in 2008 older workers (55-64 years) were just under 2.5 million, in 2014 became 3.5 million and continues to grow, with an increase of 91,000 units in the first six months of the year. It strengthens its presence in the labor market of foreigners, which has more than 2.3 million jobs, with an increase of 604,000 units between 2008 and 2014 and to 77,000 in the first half of the year. Meanwhile, there are still problems that are likely to become chronic: young people who do not study and do not work (the Neet) are 2.2 million, underemployment covers 783,000 workers, involuntary part-time 2.7 million employees and the redundancy fund has exceeded the 2014, the threshold of one billion hours granted, corresponding to approximately 250,000 equivalent workers. And then there are the workaholic in spite of themselves: in the last twelve months, 11.3 million Italians who worked regularly or occasionally during the weekend, 10.3 million formal overtime without overtime pay, 7.3 millions in distance (from home or on the road), 4.1 million worked at night, 4 million did little odd jobs.
The platform reboot (and transformation) of Italy : geography of winning redesigned driver hybridization . Today, the first factor is the successful repositioning of the relationship with the whole, profoundly changed by the fall of the barriers and entry costs thanks to digital. Who in the years of hardship internal won any protectionist impulse or pure trench, and went to the outside assuming the risks and accepting challenges, now he collects the dividend of that choice. Exports are worth 29.6% of GDP. Despite the backlash caused by the crisis in emerging markets, they have continued to grow even during the crisis years and the first nine months of the year marked a + 4.2% over the same period last year. They win the manufacturers of machinery and equipment, with a surplus of 50.2 billion Euros in 2014, and Italy is now a leading manufacturer of machinery for producing other machinery. Vince agrifood, that in the year of the Expo is the boom in exports (+ 6.2% in the first eight months of 2015) and regaining the leadership in the world wine market (with over 3 billion in exports). Win compartments consolidated clothing (+ 1.4% of exports in the first eight months of the year), leather goods (+ 4.5%), furniture (+ 6.3%), jewelry (+11, 8%). And he wins a sector for cross-cultural creative vocation as that, with 43 billion of exports. But to count really is not even a significant positive sign in economic indicators. The real ‘X factor’ is in a renewed hybridization of sectors and traditional skills that produces a new Italian style: the result of this hybridization is a transformation of traditional industries. The design and fashion are the archetype (hybridization quality, artisan know-how, aesthetics, brand). Today the success of Italian gastronomy hooked development in the food industry, linking it to tourism, the natural and cultural beauties of the country, thanks to the flywheel of digital platforms.
The wave upright tourism polymorph. The tourism sector has been a steady increase in flows even during the crisis years. Since 2000 the total number of arrivals in the Italian territory has increased by 33.3%, reaching in 2014 a record $ 106.7 million, with 378.2 million admissions. The largest increase relates to the arrivals of foreigners were 51.7 million last year (+ 47.2% between 2000 and 2014) and weigh now for 48.4% of the total. But Italian tourists increased by 22.4% in the period: were 55 million last year. And the most recent figures available, for the first half of 2015, confirming the growth trend: + 1.8% of total arrivals and 3.2% of foreign tourists compared to the same period last year. The audience of admirers of our country is more and more globalized. From 2010 to today are the Chinese (+ 137.9%), Koreans (+ 70.8%), Russians (+ 56.6%) and Brazil (+ 31.4%) for foreigners who are registered the strongest positive changes. And tourism becomes diffusive: arrivals in the seaside (+ 17.2% in 2010-2013) and mountain (+ 15.2%) now grow more than those in the cities of historical and artistic interest (+ 13.2% ), traditionally the priority destinations for foreigners residing in Italy. On the supply side, in the period 2010-2014 arrivals in non-hotel accommodation (+ 23.8%) increased much more than those in hotels (+ 16.5%): + 42.6% in B & amp; breakfast, + 33.2% in the cottages, + 27.9% in rental accommodation. And then there is the case in Rome: the Colosseum in 2014 had 6.2 million visitors (2.5 million in 2000 were: + 148%), the Vatican Museums 5.8 million visitors (3,000,000 in 2000: + 93%), Castel Sant’Angelo 1 million visitors (590,000 in 2000: + 69%).
The renewed confidence that rewards durable goods: cars and appliances. The cycle fall in consumption of durable goods part since 2007 and lasts until 2013, then record a fresh start: the second half of 2014 and throughout 2015, it is the consumer durables to drive the recovery in household consumption. The analysis of the present scenario encouraging. Among those in the family take responsibility for major purchases, the share of those who state that they have confidence in the future (39.8%) exceeds that of someone who does not see positive signs (22.4%), while the remainder ( 37.8%) is still uncertain. This renewed confidence is reflected in the purchase intentions: 5.7% of households (more than double last year) plan to buy a new car (if it goes well, you will have about 1.5 million in 2016 registrations, not seen since 2008), 5.7% new furniture for the home, 11.2% of new appliances (almost 3 million families), 9.2% plan to renovate the building. Are potential consumption to be defrosted.
Towards new styles of digital consumer and relational. The Censis estimates that 15 million Italians who shop on the Internet, 2.7 million have bought food activities in the last twelve months and home banking is practiced by 46.2% of web users. And the success of the sharing economy makes it even more obvious the new styles of consumption. Last year 4% of Italians (about 2 million) used the car sharing, but among young people, the percentage rises to 8.4%.
The fresh look of the ground floors of the city. The most common changes in the city in recent years are to be found in the “ground floor.” Between 2009 and 2015 there is a reduction of 11.2% of the hardware stores, 11% of clothing stores, 10.8% of the libraries, 10.5% of the butchers, 9.9 % of footwear stores, 8.7% of sports shops. Instead grow by 37% the takeaways, restaurants 15.5%, 10% bars, ice cream parlors and bakeries 8.2%. This depends on three reasons: the reduced capital needed to start these activities, the pervasiveness of the food in our daily lives, the initiative to many foreigners working in the trade.
Immigration Apocalyptic minutes and processes of integration. Foreigners in Italy pursuing a growth trajectory towards the status of the middle class, and so differs from the situations of ethnic concentration and social distress that characterize the Parisian suburbs or innercities London, where ‘ Radical Islam becomes the vehicle of the rancor of the second and third generations for a promise betrayed social ascent. Between 2008 and 2014 in the Italian company owners foreigners increased by 31.5% (especially in trade, which accounts for about 40% of all foreign companies, and construction, 26%), while companies led by Italian decreased by 10.6%. In late September the migrants landed in Italy were 132,071, 10% less than the same period last year. In the first nine months of 2015, 42,801 asylum applications have resulted in 23.6% of cases the allocation of humanitarian protection, in 15.8% of the subsidiary and 5.5% in the recognition of refugee status. The other half, net of possible appeals, will face a denial and obligation, not always respected, to leave our country. 70,652 illegal aliens were traced in Italy in 2008, but the figure has dropped to 30,906 in 2014 and 23,112 were in the first nine months of 2015. The repatriations have had a peak in 2011 (25,163), followed by a sharp decline up to date: 10,559 between January and September of 2015. The efforts of the institutions to expand the network of hospitality is evidenced by the number of seats more than quadrupled in two years, from 22,000 in 2013, mainly concentrated in the southern regions, to 98,000 in September 2015, distributed in all regions. But integration is a process, it certainly must be supported from above, is fulfilled in the physiology of the daily behavior. 66% of young Italians of 18-34 years is in favor of welcome in our country, people who are fleeing war and misery, while among the elderly the proportion is much lower (37.2%). 44% of Italians also believes that is an Italian citizen who was born on Italian soil, 33% of those who live in Italy for a minimum period of time (no matter where he was born), for the 19% who has Italian parents . The “ius soli” (the right to citizenship to immigrants acquired automatically by birth in a territory) is therefore the criterion for.
Politics and society still out of sync: politics as performance reforms . The more the state does not represent a bulwark safe for individuals with respect to threats to their well-being, the more the policy must be performance: must break with the past and to be perceived as a quick, effective, decisive. But there remains a deficit of confidence in the people. Globalization continues to divide Italians: keeps a positive value only for 39%, 47% gives a rather negative view, 14% is uncertain. On the free market Italians express a broad consensus: 66% gives a positive assessment, only 25% is critical of, 9% have no opinion about it. But at the same time 39% think positively protectionism, against 46% who expressed a negative rating and 15% of doubters. Only 23% of Italians believe that the EU takes due account of our national interests (against a European average, based on the respective national interests of the different member countries, accounting for 40%), while two-thirds (67%) are convinced to the contrary. Italians are characterized by a level of trust granted to various political institutions lower than that expressed by fellow Europeans: only minimum percentages have confidence in political parties (9%), the Government (16%), in the national parliament (17%) , and the percentage of those who put faith in the work of regional and local authorities (22%) is less than half of what is found on average in the rest of the continent (47%). Netherlands also judgments of trust on the European Commission (39%) and Central Bank (35%).
The decision-making and re-centering the political drift of the territories. The share of civic lists the total of the lists you have elections in Capital towns increased from 30% to 65% between 2007 and 2015. This increase corresponds to the need of local elites to assert its right to self-relativising the weight of the parties political affiliation. The phenomenon of transformation is then growing. To date, the rate in Parliament (elected changing deployment compared to the elect in all) is 19.5% (19% did not reach the entire Legislature earlier). The “change of team” are on average 5 per month in the Regional Councils, 6.1 in parliamentary waltz: a much higher value than that of the previous Legislature (3.0).
4 December 2015
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