“The Italian economy, instead of speeding up, slowing down “. The economic scenario of the Study Centre of Confindustria is worrying, because the “failure to take off the restart is a real conundrum.”
Along the same lines Pier Carlo Padoan, who admits difficulties. “There is a recovery, but weaker, not accelerated. We live in a post recession and I am among those who believe that the idea of secular stagnation is not so farfetched” says Minister Economy. “We need to support investment and the government is trying to speed up the public ones,” said Padoan, “but the problem is the resources and mechanisms. The Government is committed to accelerate the procedures of public investment, including that funded, because it is the way of take advantage of the clauses for investment. “
Confindustria explains that” it must be noted that the output from the second recession, despite an external panel clearly better than in the past, has been slower than the ascent followed the end of the first (between 2008 and 2009). ” According to the manufacturers, “the reasons why you can not take the favorable wind are related to the fact that there are more prudent behavior, they tend to be less resolute. There is a very low savings rate, which is at historic lows . For us this slowdown remains a mystery. We think that during this autumn there is a recovery of momentum related to the assessment on orders of enterprises producing consumer goods. “
The president of Confindustria, Giorgio Squinzi highlights that “the country continues in a period of stunted growth, improves the perception and the optimism of consumers and businesses, but the shot net, burning, one that leaves in place the past and the crisis to lock onto a stable growth and strong, what , there is still no. ”
Confindustria has revised downwards its estimates of GDP growth : the growth will amount to 0.8% in 2015 (from +1 % estimated in September) and 1.4% in 2016 (from 1.5% estimated in September). According to Confindustria, “the increase in 2015, the first after three consecutive annual retreats, is almost entirely acquired by the data available until the third quarter.” In summer “instead of the predicted acceleration there was a surprising shift down.” In 2016 “the recovery will be stronger, thanks to positive drive”. In fact, the pace of the Italian economy “will not change substantially compared to what was observed in the course of 2015″. From this point of view “upside risks remain, for the possibility of delayed effects more than expected of the powerful pressures arising from external factors.” The Italian GDP will grow by 1.3% in 2017, but the forecast horizon, however, “there are also downside risks” arising from stronger than expected slowdown in the emerging economies, the consequences of military escalation un`eventuale Syria and the fear generated by the terrorist attacks in Europe.
More than half of the household income goes to the Italian tax authorities . In 2015, it calculates Confindustria, a family consisting of a couple of employees with a child of school age, allocates 54.9% of the income to the payment of social security contributions and taxes, direct and indirect. The more substantial payment “is made directly with payroll deductions, including those which do not appear because the responsibility of the employer”.
A true revival of growth you would have broken down the Italian level tax evasion and social security contributions in Italy amounts to 122.2 billion euro, equal to 7.5% of GDP . Only Greece is worse. According to Confindustria Treasury they are stolen every year 40 billion VAT, personal income tax of 23.4, 5.2 of IRES, 3 of Irap, 16.3 of other indirect taxes and 34.4% of social security contributions. Confindustria calculates a “3.1% of GDP and more than 335,000 employees the additional budget of halving evasion”. The hidden economy in which dwells evasion “is particularly high in service activities (32.9% of the value added of the sector), trade, transport, accommodation and catering activities (26.2%), construction (23 , 4%) and in professional activities (19.7%). In contrast has a margin contained in the financial and insurance activities (3.5%) and manufacturing. ” Among the causes of evasion, “the perception of efficiency of the Pa”, “the inadequacy of the administration” and “the illegal economy.”
“The worst competitor I as an entrepreneur is someone who does not pay taxes and who avoids all the way to pay for them, “said the president of Confindustria, Giorgio Squinzi, that evasion has reached” absolutely pathological “. Confindustria and its members “are always ready to pay taxes to contribute to civil and social growth of the country.”
The demand for labor in Italy “is divided”, says Confindustria, but despite the recovery in employment are 8 million people who lack work in whole or in part. In the three years through 2017 will create 650,000 jobs that lead to 815,000 the total since I started again to rise, ie by 2014. “You divided the labor demand – said the CSC – the balance is positive in 2015 and the Prospects are good for the next two years. The increase in employment started in 2014 (+ 0.2% compared to 2013) despite the drop in GDP (-0.4%), was established in 2015 (+0, 7%) “. For Confindustria, the increase will be sustained in the coming two years, it is estimated that the unit of work will increase by 0.9% in 2016 and 1.1% in 2017, to 24 million, or 1.2 million below the level Pre-crisis, 877,000 more than the minimum of the end of 2013.
More people employed in Italy , also thanks to tax relief for employers and the rules of the Jobs Act . “The people employed in Italy – says Confindustria – after decreasing to 963,000 units in the second quarter of 2008 to the last in 2013, have seen a recovery in 2014 (+ 160 thousand in the fourth quarter 2013 and fourth in 2014), despite the slowdown in September, was consolidated in 2015: + 160 thousand in late 2014 and the third quarter of 2015 “. Second avenue of Astronomy, “on employment have certainly had an important role the introduction of tax relief for the temporary recruitment and the rules of the Jobs Act. Although the effects of the new rules have not yet been fully quantified , available data indicate that the government’s measures are having a positive impact. “
Squinzi took the opportunity for a dig to workers’ representatives. “Some trade union circles persist in arguing against this reform” of the Jobs Act, which “puts the country finally on the same level of its European competitors,” but “the numbers testify in favor: in the first ten months of 2015, new hires in time indeterminate in the private sector grew by almost 30% on the same period a year ago and razed shares of other types of contracts have risen by more than 16% “.
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