Milan – 11:30. The markets have finally reached the expected response from the Federal Reserve on the rise in US interest rates. Governor Janet Yellen, according to the expectations of investors, will raise the cost of money that is the lowest level since 2008. Analysts expect tones ‘dove’ in the release of the US Central Bank, with particular attention to what is proposed about the pace of rising interest rates in the near future. Yesterday came the last push to the action, with the dynamics of inflation ‘core’ (the one that excludes seasonal variables and energy) in line with the objective of the Fed itself, to +2%.
The wait for a rise, but extremely cautious, brings volatility on the dollar. According to observers, in fact, on the one hand there is room for a strengthening of the dollar in conjunction with the actual announcement of monetary tightening. On the other hand, the path to the slow motion of rate hikes that everyone expects it could curb the growth of the dollar, or even reverse it. Not surprisingly, the positions ‘bull’ against the dollar in recent times been smothered: the memory went to the weakness that occurred at the beginning of the cycle of restrictive monetary policy in 2004, in 1999 and 1994. In circumstance most recent (June 2004), the greenback went down in five of the six weeks following the Fed move, only to begin a period of appreciation that lasted throughout the year.
If the decision of the Fed is undoubtedly the event of the week, an eye also goes to the oil . Crude oil prices yesterday again in recovery, are now in slight decline. WTI remains near $ 37 per barrel, the Brent area share in $ 38. The European markets treat cautious: Milan retraces the tie after a positive start, Paris salt 0.4% and Frankfurt 0.1% and London 0.7% salt. Telecom remains in the spotlight after the meeting that rejected the conversion of savings shares into ordinary shares. While waiting for the news from Washington, the ‘ € is smooth against the dollar at 1.0945 area. Stable exchange rate between euro and also the yen to 133.40. Start for stability for the spread between BTP and Bund: the yield spread is 104 basis points to the yield to 1.68%.
The agenda Macroeconomic indices of the Old Continent provides SMEs that anticipate the trend of manufacturing sector rises to the top for 20 months, in the Eurozone, to 53.1 points in December, above the 50 mark that separates expansion from contraction in economic activity. Good news from the France , which confirms the good data of industrial production, with the indicator rising to 51.6 points in December from 50.6 in November, its highest level for 21 months. Also expanding the Germany : 53 points, up from 52.9 points the previous month. Analysts had forecast a slight decline to 52.8 points. It points to a slight increase of more ‘ European inflation , which is still very low: the rate of the annual increase in prices in the euro calculated by Eurostat for November is in fact equal to 0.2%. In the previous month was 0.1%. In the EU 28 countries prices rise by 0.1% in November after remaining unchanged in October. In addition to the decision of the Central Bank, the US expect applications for new mortgages, the start of construction sites, industrial production in November (-0.2% view), the SMEs in the manufacturing sector (flash estimate) and stocks oil.
In the morning, the Tokyo Stock Exchange closed sharply higher after two negative sessions, invigorated by the recovery of the dollar. The Nikkei index gained 2.61% (+484.01 points) to 19,049.91 points in late trade. The Topix index was up 2.54% (+38.17 points) to 1,540.72 points. Little attention has been the fact that the PMI flash Nikkei / Markit manufacturing trend in Japan in December it dropped to 52.5 points from 52.6 in November. Also Hong Kong jumped upwards of two percentage points, while Shanghai has treated just above par. Positive session for the second time in a row last night, Wall Street with the Dow Jones at 17,525 points (+ 0.90%) and the Nasdaq at 4,995 points (+ 0.87%). L ‘ Gold is increasing to $ 1,066.55 an ounce.
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