Istat surprise on growth: GDP revised upward. Renzi: “We want Italy pink jersey in the EU” – The Republic

Milan – Surprise growth Italian, which, although confined to levels from area code is showing stronger than expected: Istat revised upward estimates of GDP for the first and second quarter of 2015. In the first three months of the year the GDP increased by 0.4% (+ 0.3% estimate previously widespread Institute). In the second quarter, GDP grew by 0.3% over the previous quarter (from + 0.2% estimated previously) and 0.7% against the second quarter of 2014 (+ 0.5% from the previous estimate ). Good news for the government, together with the fall in unemployment, which estimated for the entire 2015 growth of 0.7% and can now think of hitting the target with less worries: the change already acquired for 2015 (assuming that nothing changes in the last two periods) was 0.6%, so just a little extra effort to reach the goal. Or, maybe, do something better. It arrives on social, commented Matteo Renzi: “A growing GDP, growing the employed, less unemployment. The reforms needed,” the prime minister.

reactions to data

The analysts’ expectations of understanding, the note morning, they were for the confirmation of growth to 0.2%. Downstream data, now point out that “the good news is that after these revisions growth ‘acquired’ for 2015 (assuming that is a stagnation in the rest of the year) rose to 0.6%. Assuming (as in our central scenario ) + 0.3% quarterly in the remaining quarters of the year, it would reach 0.8% (on top of our current forecast is that of the place by the government in Def) “. Returning to Istat data of the second year they say that “the main aggregates of domestic demand showed dissimilar trends, with the national final consumption increased by 0.3% (+ 0.4% for the final consumption of residents) and gross fixed capital formation decreased by 0.3%. Regarding the foreign components, there was a more intense growth in imports (+ 2.2%) than for exports (+ 1.2%). “

positive contribution from domestic demand, which had a positive impact on GDP growth by 0.2 percentage points, decomposed into a 0.3 household consumption and Private Social Institutions (ISP), nothing from the Public Administration (PA) and -0.1 gross fixed investments. “Although the changes in inventories made a positive contribution to the change in GDP (+0.4 percentage points), while the contribution of net exports was negative 0.2 percentage points,” added the Mayor. “Compared to the previous quarter, the value added of the industry has remained steady and that of services rose by 0.3%, while that of agriculture decreased by 1.1%.”

The State needs. In the first eight months of the year, meanwhile, it continued to improve the needs of the public sector amounted to approximately 31.7 billion euro, an improvement of $ 19 billion over the same period last year. In August, however, there was a slight reversal of the trend with the requirements increased to 7.8 billion from 7.5 in 2014: the improvement of the situation in January-August – the MEF in a statement – is in line with the reduction in net debt between 2014 and 2015 indicated in Def, while the increase in the last month “due to the effects of the judgment of the Constitutional Court regarding the mechanism of the revaluation of pensions”, as well as to higher net contributions in favor the European Union.

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GDP

economic growth

Economic Recovery

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