Growth estimates higher for both this year and for the next, and a deficit in 2016 will be allowed to grow, compared to its trend, a sum equal to 0.8 percent of GDP or 13 billion, then touching the 2.2 per cent of the product. And really, in the end the deficit could rise a little ‘higher, if at European level will be accepted the principle that the costs for the reception of migrants can be spun off from the calculation: our country intends to ask for the costs of ‘Emergency these months additional space in an amount equal to 0.2 percent of GDP, about three billion.
PASSAGE TO THE ROOMS
Note the update document economics and finance that the government approved yesterday and will now go before Parliament contains the stated objective of a maneuver more growth-oriented. “Expansive and not the penalty,” he called the premier Renzi, who then wanted to sum up the path already done so, and what remains to be done: “In 2015 we turned, in 2016 it comes to speed.” Both Renzi, both Economy Minister Padoan however underlined with insistence that the next will be the first year since the beginning of the long crisis in which the ratio of debt to GDP will be reduced. More: Italy – has specified Padoan – will also respect the rule of debt in its future-oriented (forward looking).
The goal of a balanced budget is, however, it moved forward another year , from 2017 to 2018. The good performance of the economy, that even in a context of caution can bring growth estimate to 0.9 percent this year and next to 1.6 (in both cases, two decimals above the previous forecast) is given by the government not only to the favorable international framework (“will not last forever,” warned the Minister of Economy) but also to measures taken in recent months. Measures, which are then with the next law of stability will be confirmed and indeed intensified.
dispelled DOUBTS
In any case the government considers it possible to use additional margins of flexibility, than those already put pen to paper in April with the first version of Def, or the ability to reach a deficit of 1.8 per cent (instead of ’1.4) in relation to GDP. Now with the full use of the clause of reform and about 5 billion in co-financing infrastructure projects will touch 2.2. According to the Ministry of Economy doubts on possible appeal by the Italian in this second instrument of flexibility they would be overcome thanks to the higher growth scenario and the respect of the rule on the debt, which makes the position of our country altogether more credible.
In addition there is the possibility to define the further reduction of three billion for expenses incurred as a result of the emergency migrants (the figure corresponds to that assumed in the Messenger of last September 8). As he noted by the President of the Council asking you to connect the issue of refugees and the consequent financial commitment to the fiscal rules has been put forward in the first instance from other countries such as Austria, but is naturally view with total support from our country, first he had to deal with the significant costs of the reception.
A contribution to the reduction of public debt will also come from privatization, which will yield in 2015 to 0.5 percent of GDP, just over 6 billion, and a greater amount, or 0.5 percent, in the following years. It does not help in this path instead that inflation remaining low, well below the target (close to 2 per cent) set by the ECB, limits the growth of nominal GDP and therefore by arithmetic makes it a little ‘higher incidence debt.
No comments:
Post a Comment