Here’s the note to update Def: space flexibility to EU 17.9 billion – Il Sole 24 Ore

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This article was published September 19, 2015 at 15:01.
The last change is the 19 September 2015 at 15:06.

The Ministry of Economy has published online the Update to the Document of Economics and Finance approved yesterday by the Council of Ministers, a working basis for the next stability law to be submitted by 15 October. Confirmed the action points for the Government in 2016: the elimination of tax on the first house, farmland and machinery bolted ‘but also measures of “poverty alleviation and stimulating employment, private investment, innovation , energy efficiency and revitalization of the South. ”

The figures in the field
As anticipated, the Note is revising upwards its growth forecast for this year (from 0.7% in April to +0 , 9%) and for 2016 (+ 1.6% against + 1.4%). At the same time, the document estimated a rise in the level of net debt planned for 2016: in April had been set at 1.8%, is now raised to 2.2 percent. It also moved forward by a further year, then to 2018, the target of a balanced structural, while in 2017 the net debt structure would be 0.3% with a deficit / GDP ratio to 1.1 percent.

The commitment to debt reduction
Italy, however, remains committed to reducing the public debt from 132.8% this year (the correct value rising by 0.3%) to 131.4% in 2016 (compared to 130.9% forecast in April), with an even steeper decline in the following years: 127.9% of GDP in 2017, 123.7% in 2018 and 119.8% in 2019. The primary balance is expected to pass this year from 1.7% to 2% in 2016, up 3% in 2017, only to be between 3.9% and 4% in the last two years of the forecast.

The use of the flexibilities EU
The government’s intention is to benefit almost entirely of the flexibilities provided by the European rules: one 0.1 % further by clause of structural reforms (in addition to the 0.4% already obtained), and a 0.5% increase for the provision of investment supported by the European co-financing, a margin that would be used by 0.3 percent . Italy will also seek additional flexibility up to 0.2% of GDP in 2016 (3.3 billion) for the costs it has undertaken in the management of migrants. If you will arrive ok Brussels, Italy may use some flexibility for a total of more than one point of GDP, up to 17.9 billion euro. “Net debt – it says – will increase, compared Profile trend, up to a maximum of 17.9 billion in 2016 (including, if recognized at European level, the flexibility related to the immigration emergency up to an amount of 3.3 billion), 19.2 billion in 2017, 16.2 billion in 2018 and 13.9 billion in 2019 “.

Unemployment down to 11.9% in 2016
According to the note, the unemployment rate will fall to 12.2% in 2015 from 12.7% 2014. In 2016 the unemployment rate will decline further to 11.9% before falling to 11.3% in 2017 to 10.7% in 2018 and 10.2% in 2019.

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