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“We will evaluate the tax position of Italy in relation to the stability and growth pact in the fall, in our opinion on the draft budget law, a Once the we will have received “. The spokesman for economic affairs of the European Commission has commented to ‘ Ansa Note of the updating of the document of economics and finance executive launched Friday night. The report to the Parliament attached to the Note, however, argues that the flexibility agreed with the EU can ensure a “treasure” of almost 18 billion by 2016. “The ‘ Net debt will increase, compared Profile trend, up to a maximum of 17.9 billion in 2016 (including, where recognized at European level , the flexibility related to ‘ emergency immigration up in an amount of 3.3 billion), 19.2 billion in 2017, 16.2 billion in 2018 and 13.9 billion in 2019 “.
The update of Def calculates flexibility watching the difference between the deficit trend and programmatic. In practice, the 17.9 billion – if recognized by Brussels – would be room for maneuver due to 3.3 billion emergency immigrants (0.2 percent of GDP), to about 5.4000000000 to 5.5000000000 clause investments (which require co-financing by Italy) and for the remaining 9.1000000000 to 9.2000000000 flexibility for reform. Of this final installment, the government had already complied flexibility for about 0.4 points of GDP (EUR 7.3 billion) and now seeks to be admitted to a further flexibility of 1.7 / 1.8 billion more. The government, with the Def, asks Europe the chance to have a greater deficit than planned not only for 2016. But also for subsequent years . In particular, the excess would be 1.1 percent of GDP in 2017 (equivalent to 19.2 billion), 0.9 points in 2018 (EUR 16.2 billion) and 0.7 points in 2019 (equal to 13 , 9 billion). The government believes that “a more substantial reduction of the structural deficit in 2017 would be counterproductive and that an overall decline of 0.7 points in 2017-2018 (and two points of GDP in terms of nominal deficit) already constitutes one extraordinary fiscal effort . “
As for the revenue, in 2015 the government expects to collect 11.87 billion of euro from the fight against tax evasion. Compared with the forecast cash bedded in 2015 there are more revenue totaling 2.3 billion euro, reads the document. The comparison of the estimate of receipts in 2015 and the revenue actually collected recorded in final 2014 highlights on the other hand, greater resources for 150 million euro. The revenue coming from the voluntary disclosure should instead be equal to 671 million in 2015 and 18 million in 2016. As for the proceeds expected from the divestitures public , the paper law that operations related to the sale of the shares held directly by the State related to ENAV, Post and STMicroelectronics, “recorded significant progress in the current year”, while the path of the Railways is still ” in the definition phase “. The implementation of the operations, the note points out, “it is in any case conditioned to the presence of favorable market conditions , which allow to increase the value of these assets.” This does not prevent the executive to set more ambitious goals for the coming privatization proceeds. “The government – says the document – reviews the privatization plan already presented in 2014 Def prefissandosi slightly more ambitious objectives in terms of expected income, equal to about 0.4 percent of GDP in 2015 and 0.5 percent in the years 2016-2018 “.
Inevitable, then, the plan to dispose of public property . “As part of the process of alienation of real estate assets of the state, the law of stability in 2015 provided for the disposal of properties of the DoD is not used for commercial purposes, which are expected to at least equal revenue 220,000,000 in 2015, 100 million in 2016 and in 2017, “the report reads. “In order to achieve these revenue – explains the government – the Ministry of Defense has made available a number of properties already valued and available for sale. Currently discussions are going on with investors and, in particular, with Deposits and loans to finalize the sale by the end of this year. ” The executive then recalled that implementation of the provisions of the Stability Law 2014 was initiated jointly with the State Property, “the initiative Proposal estate 2015 , directed to local authorities and other public invited to express interest in bringing owned buildings, to value and sell. Were presented, by the bodies, requests to participate in the initiative with a total value of 2.7 billion . “
Among the savings, however, could not be cutting the public expenditure designed to contribute mainly to the financing of measures to promote employment, the South, businesses and households, and zeroing of safeguard clauses. “Spending Primary Pa relative to GDP is expected to decline by about 3.4 percentage points from 46.6% of GDP in 2015 to 43.2 percent in 2019 (43.3 per cent as estimated in Def) ” It reads the note. “In particular – the text continues – current expenditure net of interest recorded a reduction of around 2.5 percentage points of GDP, from 42.6 of 2015 to 40.1 percent of GDP in 2019, essentially confirming the forecast last April. ” The interest payments at the end of year is instead expected to about 70 billion (4.3 percent of GDP), with a slight increase compared to the estimates of the spring (0.05 percent). Compared to 2014, however, the estimates provide for a reduction of about 0.4 percentage points of GDP, aided by the drop in interest rates. In 2016 this ratio remains stable, while in 2017 starts to fall to stand at 4.0 percent in 2019.
‘in each case on obtaining the required flexibility in Brussels resting most maneuvering for next year, that Matteo Renzi has already quantified in 27 billion euro . Especially since after the abolition of tax on the first house, farmland and bolted, the executive promises to continue the process of tax expenditure in 2017 with a cut of ‘ imposition on business profits , “waves more align Italy with European standards”. Since 2016, the government confirmed the action steps waved in recent weeks: in addition to the funeral of Tasi, measures of “poverty alleviation and stimulating employment, private investment, innovation, energy efficiency and revitalization South “. And, remember, stop the entry into force of the safeguards . All this to lead to a decline in the tax burden to 42.6% in 2016 and even more in the years to come, if they click the increases in VAT and if you just take the bonus of 80 €. “Due to the deactivation of safeguard clauses and the impact of the measure of the eighty euro on IRPEF, the tax burden falls, in the current scenario, from 43.1% in 2015 to 42.6% in 2016 with further reductions in later years, “the document reads. If the clauses were activated, increases VAT and excise duty, because of the failure to achieve the budget targets , “the evolution of the tax burden would have increased: from 43.7 percent in 2015 would reach 44 , 3 percent in 2017 and then level off at 44 percent in 2019 “.
But, again underlines the government,” the government has pledged to block the activation, to prevent the economic recovery act and the process of implementation of structural reforms started to be held back by restrictive measures. ” It estimated a decline of unemployment for this year from 12.7% in 2014 to 12.2% and 11.9% for 2016. Also according to government estimates, then, the rate will fall further to 11.3% in 2017 to 10.7% in 2018 and 10.2% in 2019.
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