GDP, Istat expects + 0.3% in the third quarter. In 2015 acquired growth of 0.7% – The Daily

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This year the growth of acquired GDP is already 0.7%. That is exactly the progress expected by the government in the Document of economics and finance. The figure comes by Istat, which released the monthly macroeconomic forecasts and the growth forecast for the third quarter, “of 0.3% with confidence interval ( the indicator of the possible statistical error contained in the estimate, ed ) between +0.1 and + 0.5%. ” Only three days ago the institute has revised upwards the growth estimate for the first six months of the year, leading to 0.6% growth gained.

The GDP growth “is expected to continue on the same rhythms “of the second quarter (+ 0.3%)” in the third quarter, but the slowdown in world trade will have an impact on the export decreasing the supply of favorable foreign component, “the statement said , and “on the basis of the forecasting model for short-term Istat the economic variation of the real GDP expected in the third quarter amounted to 0.3% , with a confidence interval of between + 0.1 and + 0.5%. ” “If there is a slowdown in exports influenced by the slowdown in emerging economies – writes the statistical institute – it is the application National (excluding inventories) to provide the main positive contribution to the GDP. In this scenario, the acquired growth for 2015 is equal to 0.7% . “

” On the demand side, the increase scenario of consumption (+0.4 %) was associated with a reduction of total investment (-0.3%), synthetic Flex in construction (-0.8%) and transport equipment (-2.7%) and increased investment in machinery and equipment (+ 0.6%). “

The GDP growth of 0.3% recorded in the previous second quarter was due to an increase in the added value of services (+ 0.3%) and ‘ Industry in the strict sense (+ 0.2%) while turned negative dynamics of construction (-0.7 %). For the foreign component, the national accounts data indicate a more intense growth of imports (+ 2.2%) than exports (+ 1.2%). This trend reflects, according to statistics on foreign trade, the slowdown in sales to markets outside the EU (from 2.9% in the first quarter to 0.4% in the second) and a significant increase of ‘ import (from + 0.3% to + 6.7%).

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