Unemployment is falling 11.5% to its lowest in three years – The Republic

Milan – The unemployment rate drops to 11.5% to the lowest since 2012, but the figure is only apparently positive because it increases the number of employed, indeed fall. The unemployment rate, in fact, is a relationship between the unemployed and the total labor force (employed + unemployed). The figure would be positive if the unemployed would evolve in all occupied. Does not really happen that way because who does not have a job stops being unemployed not because they find work, but because discouraged, turns into an inactive, or in one that is not working nor seeking work.

In October, in fact, , registering the second consecutive decline, those employed on a monthly basis, with a decrease of 39,000 units compared to September (-0.2%). According to Istat the decline “is determined by the independent”, which include the self-employed. On an annual basis – instead – employment grows: +75 thousand persons (+ 0.3%).

GRAPHICS: ALL NUMBERS OF WORK

Employment. The employees remain largely unchanged, but the employment rate decreased by 0.1 percentage points to stand at 56.3%, an increase of 0.4 points in the year. The estimate of the unemployed in October decreased by 0.5% (-13 million), a decline that affects women and people older than 34, while in the twelve months people laden work fell by 410 thousand units the rate rose from 13 to 11.5% the past.

inactive. In short, the problem is rather that the growth of inactive after + 0.5% in September They increased again by 0.2% in October (+ 32 thousand units), an increase of 196 thousand people in the last 12 months. Overall, the inactivity rate is 36.2%. Against 22.4 million employed, there are 2.9 million unemployed and therefore 14.1 million inactive.

The youth unemployment. Among young 15- 24enni the unemployment rate is 39.8%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. It is excluded from the calculation of the inactive, that is, those who are not employed and not looking for work, in most cases because they engaged in the studies: in this way the unemployed among young people are 10.3%. Also increasing unemployment in the age group 25-34 years cha rises to 17%, compared with 27.3% of inactive.

The quality of employees. In the period August-October 2015, employees increased by 0.3% (+55 thousand) compared to the previous quarter, while the independents fell by 0.4% (-23 thousand). In trend terms employees grew by 0.9% (+158 thousand) and also thanks to Jobs Act and tax relief fully explain the growth in employment in twelve months, while independents decreased by 1.5% (-83 thousand ). In October, there were no material changes to fixed-term employees and indefinitely, while in the period from August to October the employed permanent decrease of 0.2% compared to the previous quarter (-32 thousand), while the term grew by 3.6 % (+87 thousand). Compared to the same month last year employed permanent grow by 0.1% (+13 thousand) and forward by 6.2% (+146 thousand).

Category. In October, as said the fall in employment over the previous month is determined by women (-0.5%), while there was a slight increase among men (+ 0.1%). The male employment rate, 65.9%, remains unchanged, while the female, 46.8%, decreased by 0.2 percentage points. The drop in unemployment last month is determined by women (-2.0%), while there was an increase among men (+ 0.8%). The male unemployment rate, at 11.1%, increased by 0.1 percentage points, while that of women, 12.2%, falls to 0.2 points.

The case. In the last three years there has been an almost constant growth of employees of 50 years or more: + 13.9%, equal to about +900 thousand between January 2013 and October 2015. On the one hand weighs aging population, other interventions that have stretched the age to retire.

European Union. In October in the euro area, the unemployment rate fell to 10.7 % from 10.8% in September and 11.5% a year earlier. This is the lowest level since January 2012. In the EU the unemployment rate was 9.3%, unchanged from September and down from 10.1% a year earlier. This is the lowest level since September 2009. The notes to Eurostat.