Growth, Istat 2015 will close at + 0.7%, against expectations of a 0.9% Government – The Daily

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‘ Istat crushes definitely the ambitions of government: 2015, according to estimates of the Institute will close with growth of of GDP 0.7% against the + 0.9% expected by the tandem Renzi-Padoan . The estimate is based on an expectation for the fourth quarter of a +0.2 percent. The positive performance of the Italian economy, says Istat, it was driven by the growth of value added in the sector manufacturing and, to a limited extent, in the service . For the fourth quarter we expect continued, albeit at moderate pace , the expansionary phase that began early in the year. And so the economic growth in real GDP is estimated to be + 0.2%, with a confidence interval from 0 to 0.4 percent.

As for the annual projection, the growth achieved by comparing the quarterly data adjusted for working days of 2015, including the forecast for the fourth quarter with those of 2014 is just 0.7 percent. In 2015, Istat precise, there are three working days more than in 2014. The estimated annual figure, the institute will produce the March 1 , comes from a calculation method different, some respects from that used for the quarterly estimates; Istat noted that the annual change in GDP is measured without making a correction for working days.

The growth of GDP in the third quarter contributed positively domestic demand net inventory (for two-tenths of a point) and the change in stocks (three tenths), while net foreign demand provided a negative contribution (equal to four-tenths). In terms of domestic demand, the stronger consumption Total (+ 0.4% over the previous quarter) was offset by the reduction in investments (-0.4%) , synthesis of a recovery component of the means of transport (+ 0.4%) and a decline in new machinery and equipment (-0.9%). The short-term change in construction investment was zero. The negative contribution of net exports reflected the marked reduction of export (-0.8% compared to the second quarter), compared with an increase of import (+0 , 5%).

The outlook for the manufacturing sector in the coming months appear marked by the careful . The marked reduction in industrial orders in September (-2.0% compared to August), more pronounced for the international component, is accompanied by the slowdown in confidence recorded in November, influenced by the evolution in the field of consumer goods. In construction will confirm the signs of stagnation . In the third quarter, the value added decreased (-0.1% from the previous quarter); also information on business confidence showed in November, a substantial stability of the indicator.

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