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This article was published on 5 December 2015 at 17:18.
The last change is the December 5, 2015 at 17:23.
“The forecast, released yesterday, an annual growth of 0.7%, related to data quarterly amount to an estimated 0.8% in terms of annual change in GDP not adjusted for calendar effects, said raw GDP. ” The precision data released yesterday by Istat arrives.
Yesterday the estimates of the National Institute of Statistics gave a growth of 0.7% which – now clarifies Istat – must be added, however, 3 working days more, ie +0.1 percentage points. “The forecast of the change in GDP in the fourth quarter of 2015 – said in a statement – is calculated on data adjusted for seasonal and calendar effects (the latter also known effect of the number of working days). For this reason, the estimate of an average annual growth of 0.7% in 2015 is not readily comparable to the prediction made by the government, or + 0.9%, as is highlighted by the press today. ”
The estimated consumptive of annual change in GDP in 2015 will be disseminated by Istat on the 1st of March. “This estimate – continues the statement – is compiled considering the actual aggregated, regardless of the different number of working days in the year shown. In other words, it is not correct for the effects of the calendar. In particular, a greater number of working days (in 2015 they found three more than in 2014) has a positive impact on GDP. Based on the empirical regularities recorded in time series can be estimated that 3 extra days to have an upward effect on the order of +0.1 percentage points. “
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