Milan – The Governing Council of the ECB does not surprise the markets and decided to cut the interest rate on deposits by 10 basis points, from -0.2 to -0.3%, “with effect from 9 December 2015 “. It was from September 10, 2014 that the rates were not touched. This is the best move expected by analysts: from next week, the institutions will pay more (the interest is negative) to leave their cash parked on c / c of the European Central Bank. A move that should discourage rather inaction and to speed up the circulation of the currency. The interest rates on the main refinancing operations (those that provide the bulk of liquidity to the Eurosystem) and the marginal lending facility (those required by individual banks and of the duration of a night) however remain unchanged at 0.05% and to 0.30%.
The governor Mario Draghi listed in the press conference by all the tools put in place by the ECB to support the economic recovery and price, on which “there ‘it was unanimity but a very large majority. ” Beyond rates, as expected, the Governing Council has also decided to revise the plan purchase of securities which goes by the name of Quantitative easing . In particular, the plan was extended from September 2016 to March 2017, or at least until it is in the crosshairs of the target inflation close to 2%. Because the latest data on inflation were negative: “The latest figures on inflation have certainly brought a smile to President Draghi. The data, in fact, it is again relegated to negative territory in September and, with the product GDP just above the maximum pre-crisis, returned to materialize the fear that Europe will fall into deflation. But this time the problem is that the Q and Sorting the ECB should have exactly the opposite effect “, noted this morning Neil Murray Aberdeen.
In addition to the extension of time, Draghi announced other tweaks to Q and . The ECB will reinvest the redemption of securities purchased under the program, as they mature, “as long as is necessary.” As noted by the economists of Cassa Lombarda, the monthly amount of purchases increased by 60 billion but only to a varying degree depending on the securities already held that fall due and the payment of which will be reinvested: in reality the move has minimal impact as the purchase plan began in March and covered bonds with a duration of minimum two years. So before March 2017 there will be much to reinvest. Moreover, returning to the Dragons, the plan may also purchase securities issued by Eurozone regional and local entities; the ECB, ultimately, continue to provide unlimited liquidity at a fixed rate until the end of 2017.
Draghi spoke in a “dove”, stressing that the ECB is “ready and determined to do more, if necessary. ” The markets, however, were expecting more on the price lists and click the store: the governor this time not surprised them with unexpected moves, but he limited himself to do what was expected of him. The macroeconomic outlook slightly threatened by external shocks eurozone, in particular related to rallenamento emerging markets and the stalemate in energy prices. The growth forecast updated by the staff of economists said the ECB now has a GDP growth of 1.5% in 2015 (it was 1.4% in September), then 1.7% in 2016 (1.7%) and 1.9% in 2017 (1.8%). Revised downwards, however, estimates of prices 0.1% this year (0.1% also forecast in September), 1% in 2016 (1.1%) and 1.6% in 2017 (1, 7%).
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