Maneuver, stop VAT increase. The growth in 2016 to 1.5% – The Messenger

Detailed commitment to cancel the VAT increase that would take effect in 2016, and use of the flexibility provided by the European regulations to give oxygen to the economy in particular, starting next year.

These are two of the lines of the paper economy and Finance that the government will approve after Easter. In fact from a procedural standpoint, is a double passage in the Council of Ministers: Tuesday, April 7 should be approved at least at the outset the document itself with the macro-economic and public finance and the main economic policy choices.

It will require rather more time to examine the other texts from National Reform Programme (NRP) required by European rules and traditionally approved as part of the Def. So it is likely that there is another Council of Ministers April 10, which is the date by which the documents must be sent to Parliament.

THE MACROECONOMIC
 Yesterday sources Palazzo Chigi have indicated that in any case the Presidency of the Council intends to take a bit ‘of time to evaluate the document which will be released by the Ministry of Economy and then make any adjustments. The casing of the fund is still substantially ready. For this year’s growth forecast is slightly restyled upwards: from 0.6 programmatic indicated last fall it will rise to 0.7 or at most 0.8 percent. In 2016 the increase in GDP will finally be more robust: evaluating a fork between 1.3 and 1.5 per cent, with Palazzo Chigi that would push for a number rounder. The previous estimate, which dates back to the previous update note Def, was steady at 1 percent dry.

On the front of the public accounts, the intention is to confirm for this year ‘s target agreed with the European Union of a deficit (net borrowing) to 2.6 percent of GDP. In 2016 this indicator would place instead between 1.6 and 1.8 percent, also reflecting the positive impact of higher economic growth.

THE SPENDING REVIEW
 But the next year also hangs the risk of a VAT increase of two points for both the ordinary rate today to 22 percent for both the intermediate to 10. A maneuver by 12.8 billion conceived as a “safeguard clause” to ensure compliance with the objectives accounting; although the Def not a text with the force of law, the government intends to formally commit to defuse this threat: it will then show in the document with a certain degree of detail alternative cover for this entry, based primarily on a review of expenditure all field that should bring savings of about 10 billion: resources that will be added to those resulting from the reduction in interest payments on the debt and the more revenue that the improvement of the economic cycle should take with them.

In ‘ together, as announced by the Minister Padoan, the document will have an expansive tone, to boost the economy. This will be possible – in the intentions of the government – also thanks to the margins of flexibility now recognized by the European Union, which should be exploited from 2016 onwards. The room for maneuver that would open thanks to the various tools available is several billion.