The increase in Mps, the network of the Treasure to the hypothesis of The intervention of the State – Corriere della Sera

last summer, when it became clear that the Monte dei Paschi would have emerged from the examination of regulators such as the weakest of the large european banks, the Eu Commission presented to the government a proposal: nationalize the company, reset the value of its debt securities at the highest risk and highest return, but to provide families with damaged what essentially would have been a full refund. Only investors such as insurance companies or investment funds, the holders of those debt obligations “subordinate” would have suffered the losses foreseen by the european law in the case of saving the public. According to various actors in the banking system, that offer was examined by the government and left to fall. Before resorting to the resources of taxpayers to support the bank of Siena, the premier Matteo Renzi, he wanted to explore the road of a capital increase on the market: too obvious for him the risk of exposing themselves to the reaction of the 5 Star Movement at the beginning of the referendum campaign. Now that the campaign is in the last days, the same dilemma arises again in similar terms.

The ministry of Economy is still discussing with the Eu Commission about the Monte dei Paschi. It does, however, at least on two aspects: the first concerns the assumption that the planned capital increase to 5 billion is the face on the market. In that case it is a question of establishing to what extent the State, today the first member of the Siena at 4%, can buy the newly issued shares of the bank without this being considered in Brussels grant the public and make taking the losses for the bondholders. According to one of the insiders, initially the Commission was of the opinion that there would be State aid if only the Treasury had maintained its 4% share. In reality the picture is more complex: in the bottom of the Atlas, for example, a group controlled by the Treasury, Cassa depositi e prestiti, has almost 20% without giving rise to claims for State aid. In theory, therefore, the government could strengthen its minority stake in the M ps, provided it does so under the conditions of the other investors, without that movie and blows of sickle on the creditors.

this Will be a decision of Brussels, on which, today, neither the Treasury nor the Commission are transparency. It will not be easy to close out a capital increase on the market. The interest of investors remains reduced, also because the european central Bank has in the course of an inspection in Siena since last may, and may reveal new leaks in 2017. So the supervision of Frankfurt, led by Danièle Nouy, in fact, discourages the participation of investors in the capital increase, which the same authority requests. The investment fund of George Soros was probed and declined the offer. From the sovereign funds of Qatar could reach one of the five billions, but the interest remains vague and conditional to full political stability in Italy after the referendum.

then There is the conversion of the bond into shares at the closing today, which could be another billion of capital. The uncertainty is such as to justify the other theme of the talks of the Treasury in Brussels, according to people familiar with the case: a request is already filed to authorize a full State aid, for a nationalization that may need to be launched already next week; this hypothesis remains current, though still yesterday the secretary of State to the presidency of the Council Massimo De Winning the excluded. Also here, the details will be decisive. In particular, in this scenario, it is important to understand what type of losses would be exposed to creditors. The Commission is willing to limit them to the bondholders “subordinate”, while preserving the person who holds the bond to ordinary deposits in the Mps. However, has to be defined how, and for how much they will be reimbursed for the families. An operation executed poorly can undermine the trust between savers and investors, to the peril of the imminent market operations to anchor the other banks fragile in Italy: Veneto Banca and Popular Vicenza, Etruria, Brands, Carife and CariChieti. In that case, could be followed by further nationalisation, or perhaps the request of a european bailout, conditional on specific reforms dictated from Brussels.

December 1, 2016 (change on December 2, 2016 | 00:40)

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