Between Vivendi Mediaset is a game of cat and mouse, while the action of the Biscione, Piazza Business continues to run, swapping to 3.758 euro at a rate of 4,85%. The said this morning the Financial Times has identified the owner of the giant media French, Vincent Bollorè, a feline, ready to bite its prey. For the largest financial newspaper, the british manoeuvre of the businessman “has all the features of the tactics honed during four decades of business: aggressiveness, boldness, and a control insidious”.
A swift move that Vivendi , which on Tuesday announced to hold a participating in the group the Italian television of 3%, an appetizer of an operation in order to reach an overall share of 20%. Yesterday saw a beat and refutes between the two major european, but the true answer has arrived in the evening, when Vivendi has made it known to be already risen, in a few hours, the 12,32% of the share capital.
Ready the counterattack of Fininvest, the holding company of Mediaset , who defined it as “a hostile takeover”: after having presented to the public Prosecutor of the Republic of Milan, and, to knowledge, to the Consob a complaint of market manipulation against French rival, the financial house Berlusconi has added an additional 5% to its participation in that laps time 40%.
“it is typical of Bollorè,” said the analyst Enedrs Analysis, Francois Godard, “it’s very bold, it is not a simple offer to buy the company, is a bet on the dissent in the Berlusconi family”. A path is one of Vivendi , that seems to be very clear for Mediaset . For the company, the refusal of the French to fulfil the commitments taken on April 8, on the platform in the Premium resulted in a loss of value of the company’s shares on the stock exchange of approximately 30%, a depreciation of which Vivendi took advantage by making a massive investment in the market”.
A rapid rise, “in a time in which Italy is already weakened by a situation of political instability, seems to point to an acceleration in the plane of Bolloré seeks to build an entertainment empire to the eu”, continued the Financial Times, a leviathan that can not be separated from the contribution of the Peninsula. On the other hand, there is the power of focus: Vivendi has, in fact, 2.5 billion euros of net cash, which he will use to his liking.
To Joseph Oughourlian, founder of the hedge fund Amber Capital Management, however, the decisions of the mogul put “in evidence that the defense of Vivendi against in the court the move by Mediaset Premium is weak”, therefore, “Bolloré has decided to take a different route, taking advantage of the fact that the shares of Mediaset are very undervalued by the market”.
it Remains to be determined what will be the next episodes of the drama. For Banca Akros, “the most likely scenario is that Vivendi to continue in its climb, reaching and exceeding the threshold of 20%, probably up to the level of 25%, which would trigger the obligation to offer. In the meantime, Fininvest, you can buy a further 1.5%, reaching the maximum sold of 5% per annum, as well as Mediaset can round to the nearest treasury shares at 5%”.
the End of December could then find Mediaset to 45% and Vivendi just below 25%. At this point, “the launch of a public offering is not unrealistic given the financial capacity of Vivendi , but it would probably be the last option if negotiations fail to find a direction”, he continued the business bank, which has lowered the rating on the title Mediaset from accumulate to neutral, while maintaining the target price is 3.5 euro.
“The balance between risk and return is not so irresistible in the present state, given the speed and magnitude of the rebound, as well as the probability of success of a potential Takeover bid,” they pointed out by Banca Akros, adding that to the current values of the action exchange in line at the target price.
The rally diieri is at the basis of the downgrade of Ubs, which cut its rating from buy to neutral, with target price at 3,35 euro. “The margin of rise, experts explained, “now depends on the ability to extract value from Premium, from M&A or by compensation legal action by Vivendi , as well as from a possible faster recovery in expected net revenue from television advertising, both in Spain and in Italy. This adds to a better management of costs, especially in Italy and an offer of a full takeover at a premium compared to our assessment”.
However, analysts Banca Imi (rating of hold and target price 2.6 euros reaffirmed) exclude the possibility of launching an offer on the minorities at this stage, “because we believe that if this had been the intention, it would have been the first announcement that would have benefited from a lower price”. For Equity, however, the expectations are addressed the possible relations with Telecom Italia, , of which Vivendi has a share of 24%. The sim has raised the target price of 5% to 3.6 euros, confirming the recommendation of the hold.
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