Banca Monte dei Paschi di siena of Siena has made it known that the Ecb has asked for a capital increase of € 8.8 billion, over the previous 5 billion likely to reach a target level of total capital ratio without subordinated and to absorb the loss of the contribution of the Atlas. The Cet1 capital is estimated to be 13-14%, but it remains unclear what will happen to the hedges and loans forborne.
The ceo of the bank, Marco Morelli, has declared that the bank will have to submit to the Ecb a new restructuring plan. In fact, the the previous plan, which envisaged spin-off of the integral of non-performing loans, is no longer current. And then pribabile that the Italian government will inject 6.5 billion euros to save the Mount, as today confirmed by three sources close to the story to the press agency Reuters.
the Other 2-2,3 billion euros will come from the conversion of subordinated bonds held by institutional investors. Finally, in the decree of the government for the intervention, even on Mps it has been clarified that the value attributed to the actions of the Mps for the translation of the Tier1 and Tier2 will be the same as the one used for the increase of the capital of the government.
there is then a special rate in favor of the State. Also, the swap between equity and bonds senior to the holders of subordinated upper Tier2 2018 retail will cover all the bondholders (even those who bought later) with the exception of those purchased by eligible counterparties or professional clients.
The complexity of the operations and of the process with a new industrial plan and the ok from the Ecb to the analysts of Equita imply that the bond and the shares will remain suspended from quotation for some weeks, at least until march, according to press sources. “According to our preliminary calculation, by entering a capital increase of € 8.8 billion, according to us the new shares will be issued at a price: 17.4 euro and the number of shares of the bank will rise from 29 to 527 million, estimate analysts of the sim card.
A price that is equivalent to a +15,38% compared to the last price of the Mps in the bag before it was suspended 15,08 euro. Equita on the title Mps keeps the ratings hold and the target price to 28 euros. Instead, Banca Imi leave the rating on the title in review “until the situation becomes clearer in terms of capital and restructuring plan”. However, “a solution to the problem of Mps with no impact or with limited implications upon the holders of the bonds could reduce the systemic risk of the sector. Banca Imi has put into the revision of the opinion on the cover, and a senior bond (before buy) and on the bond subordinate (before the sell) of the bank.
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