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This article was published on 17 January 2016 at 08:10.
Keeping Shrimp European stocks were canceled as good as last year. It took two terrible weeks to bring the budget into the red the last 12 months (Eurostoxx 50 -3%). 10 sessions in the European stock lost € 1,000 billion capitalization, 100 per day. But they are not alone. Black Swan has hit the global stock market. Year-to-capitalization of world stock markets is 5 thousand billion euro less. The market price of the shares of Wall Street has been eroded by sales to 2.1 trillion. The Nasdaq technology index has returned values of 14 months ago. The smallest Chinese market has lost 400 billion since the fall of about 20% of the stock rooms.
For lovers of statistics and a record start to the year so bad you could not see from 1970 in general terms, while on Wall Street there never was. It tends, in fact, the month of January is a favorable month for the stock markets, as well as the first months of the year, until April. No coincidence that in the rooms of the trader says the old adage “sell in may and go away” (sell in May), accompanied by “buy-in Hallowen” (buy at the end of October, when it comes the party Halloween, to benefit from the canon year-end rally markets). Hard to make sense of this strategy in recent months: the year-end rally in 2015 there was started in January and worse than you could imagine.
“We are in mid-stream,” he means a manager. From the highs reached last April European stocks have filed a correction of 20%, not crumbs. The point where we are so it’s gentle enough, a watershed. Many operators deem that of 20% as the threshold which delimits a simple and positive correction by a reversal of the long-term trend. This means that if in the coming sessions the large investment funds were to continue to deflate their portfolios of shares would increase from correction range to that of spin, ie lists (which in most cases, observing the graphs of technical analysis , still seem set to rise in the long term) could reverse the direction of the bottom and enter into a bearish channel. “It is dangerous to make predictions: the Italian index could still yield a lot and even to record a double-digit decrease compared with the beginning of the year, or it may stabilize and then slowly rising again. For sure – says an expert – for investors now play in defense. ” New sales would jump off guard many savers who are placed in mutual funds which, with some exceptions (such as flexible funds and funds of hedge funds), are set to be good only in one of the three trends that a market can have: what bullish. Have more difficulties in cases where the trend is lateral (ie volatile and directionless net), even more so when the market pointing downward since in many cases by statute can not buy instruments short, those that protect against down markets .
That’s why the next sessions will be decisive. Some indices (such as the Dax 30 in Frankfurt or to Shanghai) traveling already under the technical threshold that marks the end of the uptrend and entry into the new trend of black swan. But they still have a chance to get back on track. Much will depend on oil prices, which at this stage are literally driving everyone mad. If crude oil slips in area $ 20 (Friday closed under 29) it would have to worry. On this side it does not help the news of the lifting of international sanctions on Iran. Technically Tehran is ready to flood the market with its oil and this may further compress the price of a product that is even paying the excess supply.
Eye then to China, another strong theme. Tuesday we will know the figure for GDP in 2015. Yesterday, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang said that he expects a growth of around 7%. If the markets will believe we’ll find out as early as this night at 3 in Italy when the bell will ring the stock exchanges in Shenzhen and Shanghai.
. @ Vitolops
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