Since last August onwards Italy has had to deal with the recession. But the nightmare, according to the latest monthly note ISTA, seems destined to end in the coming months. “The downturn is expected to stop with a recovery in consumption,” says the Institute of Statistics. Overall, “the composite indicator forerunner of the Italian economy confirms substantially stationary growth in the final quarter of the year,” explains always Istat. Remain critical, however, conditions in the labor market “with stagnant employment levels” and a growing number of people searching, fruitless, of a place.
He is remembered the “maximum value” and “substantially higher” rate of unemployment (13.2% in October) than the European average. And even large companies see shrink the workforce. Other ugly signs come soaring of long-term unemployment, with more than half of the unemployed (62.3%) which is more than a year. Could be defined term unemployed, a disease especially widespread in the South. Since oil price fall no positive effect Nothing benefits from the collapse in oil prices, at least for Italy. This is shown by a “simulation exercise” reported by ISTAT in the monthly note.
In general, “the fall in oil prices would have a limited effect expansive”, points out the Institute of statistics. In particular, the effect “for the euro area would be estimated at 0.1 and 0.3 tenths of a point, respectively, in 2015 and 2016. In 2015, the impact would be zero in Italy and Germany and equal to 1 tenth of a point in France and Spain “.Anzi, does this always Istat, falling prices for energy products could accentuate” disinflationary pressures with a negative impact on expectations. In this context, the most heavily indebted countries would face increase in the real cost of debt. “
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