What is the national interest and the industrial interest in the dispute on General? In the middle, the risk is that potential contention where you lose at the end would be the Lion.The premise is that until yesterday evening was thinking about the suspects. Based, evidently, given that the General believed in borrowing the 3% Agreement, and that the Stock has followed, rewarding the first, but penalising the second. Then yesterday evening came the confirmation that the management Agreement is evaluating the possible combinations of the industry with the Lion, citing the areas in which they are possible fruitful integrations, namely, asset management, private banking and insurance, with the coupling Intesa Vita-GeneraliItalia, Fideuram and Banca Generali, Eurizon and Generali investment Europe. The question is: what is the national interest and the industrial interest behind this game?
The most widespread opinion on the market is that in a political sense there is in the defence of the General, considered that the company in trieste in its portfolio something like 60-70 billion of government securities. But as could be Understood? Here we are again in the field of hypothesis, which, however, are narrowing. In the meantime, on General and not on Mediobanca, which holds the reference height of the 13%, not enough to avert a possible climb from abroad. With an Ops (or a mixed offer), not with a Takeover bid for cash that it would be too expensive. Offering a paper against paper, with a premium of 30%, someone calculated that you would put in the game 75% of the capitalization of the bank, which dilute so much, perhaps too much, his current shareholding.
Intesa SanPaolo comes out of the closet: the evaluations in the course on General
In Piazza Affari, however, is circulating a reconstruction that provides an answer to that question. The offer that is part paper and part in cash, with the cash portion that would be put on by an international partner that recognise the asset to be divested. The entries focus on the Allianz, even if, not later than a week ago, the ceo Oliver Bäte, in an interview to the Süddeutsche Zeitung where he confirmed the interest to expand in Europe, has noted that all the acquisitions in the history of the German giant were conducted “in a friendly way,” because, he explained, this is critical to the success of any integration.
in any case, in this scenario, the Agreement would include the dilution of its shareholders, but the defense of italy would be settled in a stew of the Lion, with the likely detachment not only of Generali France – that may already be in question today – but also of Germany and Austria, all areas that make little or nothing to Trieste, but that could cause the game to those who have the synergies to be spent on the square.If, instead, Understanding it would throw your heart over the obstacle, moving in solitude, the risk would be to raise a contention to the strokes of the Opa, where they would probably have the better of the competing international insurance that have at least the double of the synergies to spend, and which therefore might raise the stakes beyond the limits of the possibility of revival of the milanese bank.
in General, the reasons for the rupture between Donnet and Minali
The risk is that you materialize, that is, the "threat" Axa, that you wanted to exorcise. A paradox, because the defense of the Italian character, in this case, it would become a mockery.On paper you can another way. The general was not informed of the programs of Understanding (and not its shareholders, from Mediobanca) and in the press release issued in the evening by the bank, nor he speaks of the research of a collaboration with Trieste. However, if you talker on the common interest perhaps you could suggest an integration between the areas of synergistic, cemented by a share exchange to mount that could produce the result to defend the independence of one of the few multinational financial tricolori of what you can do with the current structure. Where the share of Mediobanca can not grow and where the private partners in support may be legitimately tempted to monetize in the face of a economically irrifiutabile.
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