The confusion that followed the decisions of the president of the Usa, Donald Trump, on the subject of immigration, and the subsequent reactions of condemnation coming from the international institutions, companies, and also by the attorneys general of 16 States in the us, is worrying the global markets. The week opened in the name of the sales on all the major stock markets. In Europe black shirt he was in Milan (-2,95%, the Ftse Mib index), weighted by the heavy losses by banks while approaching the launch of the maxi capital increase by 13 billion UniCredit (-5,45%). Also hurt all the other stock Exchanges: Paris has lost l'1,14%, Frankfurt 1.12 per cent, London 0,92%) and Madrid (l'1.5%. Light the energy sector with the Wti crude oil down more than a percentage point (Saipem -6,72%) and Eni -2,57% . The climate of uncertainty also weighs on the performance of Italian government securities: the yield of the Btp ten-year rose to 2,33%, with a spread compared to the Bund, arrived in tap 190 basis points and the maximum three years. On the foreign exchange market, the euro/dollar little moved to 1,0695 from 1,0696 Friday closing. In a decided strengthening of the yen, to 121,59 for a euro (123,07) and 113,69 for a dollar (115,06). Drops, finally, the price of oil: the future march Wti leaves on the ground 1.09% 52,59 dollars per barrel, while a similar delivery on the Brent cede 0.63% 55,17 dollars.
The peak for the spread and the auction of ten-year
The spread between Btp and Bund closes up to 186 basis points against the 176 points of the closure last Friday, after having touched a maximum of sitting at 190 basis points, which represents the highest level since end-November last year. The yield of ten-year Italian is at 2,30%, by updating the maximum by July 2015. The differential between Italian and Spanish bonds widened to 70 basis points for the first time since February 2012. The new peak of the spread Btp/Bund 10 years must be placed in a generalised context of rising yields of government of the euro area, which, however, penalizes the Italian paper, both for the current range of medium to long, both to the uncertain political situation. To push up yields on the debt of the State of the area there is also the reading of the inflation of Saxony and Hesse, where the annual growth of prices has exceeded the 2% in January . The overall figure will arrive this afternoon and is intended to rekindle t he demands of withdrawal of the stimulus measures implemented by the Ecb on the part of large sectors of the policy and the German public. The new Btp ten-year that expires in June 2027 — offered today to 4 billion against a demand that has exceeded the 5 — was placed with a yield to 2,37%, up 60 basis points compared to the auction of December.
Heavy banks
Milan pays, especially the poor performance of the banks: with the maxi capital increase of Unicredit on doors in the climate for the banking sector Italian it is heavy. In the viewfinder of the sales Unicredit, which closed with a -5,45%, which it intends to accelerate the timing of the capital increase, and today has brought together the board of directors by communicating on a stock exchange closed, further write-downs and a loss in 2016 to 11.8 billion. In the area down to Ubi with a -6,80%, Intesa gives 3,09%, Bper, the 4,81%, Tour Bpm 3.95%. Drops General that it yields the 3,18%, and between the other financial, which Has lost 5.68%. Drops General that it yields the 3,18%, and between the other financial, which Has lost 5.68%. In the morning, had come the news of the ok of the Consob, the supervisory authority of the market, to the registration document prepared by Unicredit in the view of the capital increase by 13 billion.
The expectations of the operators
More in general, the market awaits the next moves of the U.s. president Donald Trump, in addition to appointments with the Bank of Japan and the Fomc (between two days), after the contrasting indications coming from the Us Gdp in the fourth quarter. The number one of european Supervision on banks Daniele Nouy in an interview explained that the Italian institutions have yet to do much on the bad loans and will need to be part of the Supervisory further pressure “to do what there is to do.” On the macroeconomic front, note the figure in the rise of inflation in Germany in January, which has raised fears of a progressive weakening of the program of Quantitative easing by the central Bank.
case Agreement-General according to the Financial Times
the financial sector in The drop-down Intesa Sanpaolo and Generali. The dossier Intesa-General brings back memories of the disaster acquisition of the Dutch Abn Amro by the Royal Bank of Scotland: hard times, the same advisor, similar structure, move hostile. It is the Financial Times which suggests to management and investors to take a pause for reflection. Even if it is a smaller operation, since the General capitalize 24 billion, against € 71 billion in the deal, Abn and it would be an aggregation of domestic and not cross-border, the similarities – according to the FT – are at least five, starting with the timing, unfavorable as ten years ago, when he was about to burst in the financial crisis. The context, and the banks are more solid then, but “Italy is relatively weak and the Italian banking sector is full of non-performing loans”. Then, the advisor is the same, Andrea Orcel, Merrill Lynch and now at Ubs. The operation see ms to predict a stew, such as Abn Amro, which was split between Rbs, Fortis and Santander. The first two were saved with public money and nationalised, while the Spanish group gave a short Antonveneta to Mps. The hostile nature of the initiative also makes it more risky and the group that he would be born, having systemic importance, would attract the attention of global regulators and would have more than 7% of Italian sovereign debt, even if for the most part for the account of customers. Among the arguments in favor of the deal, the Ft cites the cost savings that accompany each M&A large in size, the synergies on the revenue and also the benefits in terms of assets as long as the Danish Compromise.
January 30, 2017 (amending the January 30, 2017 | 18:41)
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