The last battle that is taking place around the remains of the poor, provincial Italian capitalism brings to mind the Foam of the Earth by Arthur Koestler. Sparrows are chirping on the wire of the telegraph, while telegraph transmits the order to exterminate all the sparrows. What else are the shots cross between Banca Intesa and Mediobanca, who compete for the General? Nothing is yet clear, in the moves of the contenders. It is not clear yet if it is likely to experience a "world war" in which there is in the game the defense of the legendary "Italian" (which was threatened by the giants of the Alps Axa and Allianz) or the more banal, fighting a "guerricciola power" casareccia (the bank Carlo Messina, who wants to extort inheritance to Alberto Nagel).
of Course, the view with the goggles blurred in little Italy, the stakes seem huge: the Winged Lion remains the "beautiful prey" that Enrico Cuccia defended for years with tooth and nail. The first insurance company in the tricolour, with a collection of prizes from 25.5 billion and a surplus of 496. Produces 2 billion profit, and off to the shareholders a dividend of 72 cents per share.
But with a retrospective look on the past, and with eyes on the global market, the forces in the field becomes a sum of weaknesses. And when there is much weakness, you must not be surprised if there were more strong, is the slaughter of the sparrows and takes away the loot. That sports the flag, as Understanding, or flying another flag, such as Allianz or Axa. It does the same. It is the lesson of Schumpeter, that was true yesterday and is true today. Generali and Mediobanca are the “Living room” that exists now only in the "giornalese", and no longer in the Country. The Winged Lion is still the "strategic" for us, even if only for the fact that it brings in a stomach something like 60 billion of securities of the Italian public debt. But in twenty years it has lost all of her records, that arose from the internationalization. The volume of premiums (slipped to the third place in Europe). The value of the Bag (dropped from 42.5 to 24 billion in 10 years). The level of the active ingredients (down to the half of those of the French Axa and German Allianz, respectively 887 and 833 billion).
for years now, the General has stopped growing and is perched in the dull and almost pathetic Fortress Italy. The world has changed, from the days of Cigarettes and Coppola di Canzano, Gutty or Bernheim. The company has not kept pace with the changes. Has waived the right to develop the business, to focus on income. In Italy he bought everything purchased (Ina, Alleanza, Toro), while abroad it has sold pieces also fine. It is pierced in the operations of "the system" often bankruptcy (airlines, Telecom, Ntv and Mps) and has refused to intervene in those really cheap (like the deal on the Pioneer, the giant of the managed savings culpably left to the French Amundi).
Today, the General is sottocapitalizzata: the net assets and reserves amount to just $ 25 billion, the coefficient of solidity Solvency Ratio II stood at 171% (compared with 205 of Axa and the 200 Allianz). But even this fragility, and the paradox, is the result of a choice. General has been the cornerstone of the Strong Powers, in a tangle stock in which, in the old game of chinese boxes, crossed all over, big names and big families: from Mediobanca, Unicredit, from the Lambs to the Pirelli. The aim was to lock up the system, and make the investments that are not contestable. Therefore, no capital increases that would dilute the shares of the shareholders, and in return, laute coupons.
So it was, for years. And so it continues to be, if it is true that the last ceo of General Philippe Donnet has just completed "the highest dividends of the story" (5 billion, in the aggregate values). I guarantee they launched a beautiful campaign of divestment, trying to divest General in France and Germany (that alone is worth 27 billion prizes). The said brutally: subtract resources to the business, and distribute them to the members. All legitimate, for charity. But then you may not be surprised if you get one bigger than you and you want to send home.
who is at fault? Of the manager of the last few years? In part, of course. But you can see that the main responsibility today lies precisely on the shareholders of the General, who have never stopped milking the Lion. And if today you are likely to fall on the ramparts of Trieste, fall together, even those that are already the weakest of the Piazzetta Cuccia. It was and is Mediobanca with its 13%, which has imposed its straitjacket on the General. Is Mediobanca, which has prevented the General of swimming in the open sea, with the excuse of eternal security. For a time, is to give reason, to Cesare Geronzi, then moved the armchairs in both living rooms, and in turn almost never animated only by the "sacred fire" of the healthy competition financial: the General is a company "outwardly directed" by a shareholder over everything is not the "pivot system".
From that pulpit, you might say. But this is the truth. The General have the same vices of the ancient of Mediobanca. And the outlet of Mediobanca the Italian capitalism, now, is no more. Speak the facts: Comit Group, until you get to the Rcs. Skirmishes financial we are seeing today are only the prelude to the fall of the gods. It is a whole system that is down, behind the battle over the General. And at the end is a good thing to happen to you. You have to understand how you intend to proceed Understanding (climbing Bag, Ops, who knows). It will check if it will be the "taxi" for some robbery from abroad (Axa or Allianz, in fact), or whether instead to play on their own (hypothesis very pleasing to the government Gentiloni, who does not speak but does not hide his support for the offensive Messina).
Piazzetta Cuccia now not decided the destinies of the Italian economy. And therefore also the castling is a defensive that has decided for the General (the purchase of 3% of the share capital of Ca ‘ de Sass, over-all borrowed with the money of the insured) is likely to be a blunt weapon. The chirping of a sparrow on the wire of a telegraph. But perhaps the order, on that thread, it’s already the past.
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