the MILAN Fiat – Chrysler reacts with a sharp rise (follow live) stock to the allegations in the Usa of violating the limits on pollutant emissions of diesel vehicles, which today, already passes to overwhelm another giant of the four wheels of the French Renault, which is put in the crosshairs by the judiciary to the French for the same problem: the three judges of the Court of Paris have opened an investigation into the company, which collapses to the French Stock exchange. Already by November, the Renault was under observation, when it was found that the Dgccrf, the Directorate-general for competition, consumption and repression of frauds, had sent to the justice of its investigation of a possible violation on the part of the automobile company Renault of the rules after eleven months of investigation. Now the three judges have given the result of the initiative of justice to verify the “forgeries on the substantive quality and the checks that have made the marketing of the car, which is dangerous for the health of the man de the animals”.
Returning to the case Fca, for the title of the day yesterday was a real bathroom is blood. There was less than an hour to the closing of european markets, when the first agencies to have wrought the news that would come with a lawsuit from the environmental protection Agency of the Usa for violations of the rules on the emissions of diesel vehicles. In a matter of a few minutes, so, the title fell to Milan to close down 16%. Sitting to forget even on Wall Street, where last night he lost the 10,28% but has resiprato in the after market, leaving guess that it would be able to get a rebound. Today, in fact, the first reactions of reasoned financial analysts indicate that the collapse of yesterday was large enough to absorb a good part of the financial impact on the group, and that there are profound differences with the Dieselgate that has engulfed Volkswagen from September 2015.
Meanwhile, the Obama administration’s they do filter the specification that the decision announced yesterday by the environmental protection Agency the american “was taken independently from the White House”. On the other hand, many have read this offensive as one of the last acts of the outgoing administration (as in the obvious respect of the roles) before moving the hand to Donald Trump, who just a few days ago he publicly thanked Marchionne and Fiat for their promised investments and the creation of 2 thousand jobs in the United States. “I hope” that the allegations “are not a consequence of the change of administration, said the same ceo italo-canadse describing the behavior of the Epa as “an agency that will lose effectiveness”, as expected from Trump. Marchionne, however, did not fail to underline the timing strange” ad “out of place”.
According to the estimates, the sanction can reach 44.539 dollars per car, and considering that they are involved 104mila you have a total of 4.63 billion dollars. From the Icpbi analysts throw water on the fire of possible reactions to stock market declines, starting to make some distinction with respect to the famous case, Volkswagen, who admitted to having installed on many vehicles a illegal software that he was deceiving the tests on pollutant emissions. Of against the Fca seems keen to show the correctness of his behaviour. Analysts recall how he emphasized the same Marchionne, who has specified as in the case of the German company, the device illegal be installed with fraudulent intent, and only on vehicles that were tested for the control of emissions. Instead, in the case of Fiat-Chrysler’s devices are the same on both the vehicles subjected to the test both on all the others.
also Different is the basin of cars now involved: 560mila in the Usa and 11 million people in the world for Volkswagen, 104mila for Fca. “At present it is difficult to predict how they will end this story, because the immediate defensive reaction on the part of the company leaves the doors open for nothing, as has already happened in the past in similar occasions”, they say from Icbpi. Even in the case of a fine from 4,63 billion, which would correspond to 2,84 euros per share, the stock has already absorbed two-thirds of the potential risk: “The action has already discounted more than it should as the probability that the story ends with a prison sentence of at the moment is very below the 66%. Moreover, even in the case of a conviction, is unlikely to be applied to the maximum penalty, considering that it does not appear to be any fraudulent intent on the part of the Fca”. Why continue to recommend the purchase of the security.
Many insiders are thinking about the case, with different facets, but many points in common. Equita raises the taget price 9.8 (+6%), but if you first advised the purchase, now comes the judgement of retention (“hold”). For Jefferies is “fundamental,” the willingness to cooperate with the Autority american, Kepler Cheuvreux and Mediobanca, emphasize a more limited risk than in the case of the Vw, with a fine which may be between 450 million and us $ 3.4 billion in the worst case. But they believe that the Epa will lean eventually for the lesser punishment.
By Citi think that the fine – based on the experience of the Vw, which also stress is different, could exceed € 3.3 billion, 19% of the market capitalisation at the close of yesterday evening. Scarce, instead, the impact on the industrial activity, given the limited weight of the diesel in the american market: the engine of 3 liters is equivalent to about 2% of the sales of Fca in the Usa, while it exceeded 20% for Volkswagen. More than the sales, therefore, scare away the compensation. Also by Banca Imi (Intesa Sanpaolo group), finally, speak of an “excessive reaction” of the market to the news yesterday, and emphasize that – if you could return to the case of the Fca, as happened with the Vw – compared to the initial estimates the final bill could amount to billions. Don’t forget that Marchionne can play a “trump card”, a trump that is bound to the new administration Trump looming as a much less strict on environmental regulation , with which the Fca has already said that they want to collaborate. If the account were too salty, the spin-off of Magneti Marelli could return to accelerate.
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