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This article was published March 10, 2015 at 18:10.
The last change is the March 10, 2015 at 18:39.
The Centro Studi Confindustria estimates an increase in industrial production by 0.4% in February over January month in which Istat has declined by 0.7% on a monthly basis. The negative figure for January – said in a note on the survey rapid industrial production – was lower than estimated CSC and those of consensus (that pointed to + 0.2%) and moved in the opposite direction than signaled the qualitative and quantitative indicators available (trust ISTAT, Markit PMI, car registrations).
Deflection in January after two consecutive increases
The decline comes after two consecutive increases in activity (+ 0.3% in November and 0.4% in December) and may be due, in part, to a statistical problem related to the calendar: the first week of January, in fact, two bridges were possible (Friday 2nd and Monday 5th) and data on electricity consumption clearly say that productive activity will was negatively affected. One day in the month of work in less involves about 3 percentage points of difference with the change from a year earlier; but the statistical programs of seasonal adjustment corrected only by the number of working days of the official calendar and not for the days actually worked.
Trend Positive quarterly
The trend of the quarter – the precise note of CSC – remains positive. In February, a possible rebound of even stronger than estimated. In the same month the manufacturing PMI rose fact two points, to 51.9 (up to July 2014), well above the expectations that pointed to 50.2. All components have shown significant progress: that of the production, in particular, has increased by 2.9 points (54.1, up to eight months); for the first time since last October new orders show an increase (51.2 to 47.8), which was also supported by domestic demand, while foreign demand is rising sharply from the previous month (+2.3 points, 55.2).
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