Despite the fact Istat negative in January, which would have weighed a statistical problem related to the calendar, the pitch of the quarter remains positive and ‘possible rebound of the attivita ‘even more’ stronger than estimated
Rome, March 10 (AdnKronos) – Confindustria continues to expect a rebound in industrial production. The CSC estimates an increase in industrial production by 0.4% in February over January when there ‘was a decrease of 0.7% over December, announced today by ISTAT. The negative figure of January, it is noted, and ‘was lower than estimated CSC and those of consensus (that pointed to + 0.2%) and you and’ moved in the opposite direction to what signaled the qualitative and quantitative indicators available (trust ISTAT, Markit PMI, car registrations).
The drop comes after two consecutive increases of the attivita ‘(+ 0.3% in November and 0.4% in December) and “may be due, in part, to a statistical problem related to calendar: in the first week of January, in fact, two bridges were possible (Friday ’2 and Monday’ 5) and data on electricity consumption clearly say that the activities ‘productive and it’ was negatively affected. A day of work in less in month involves about 3 percentage points of difference with the change from a year earlier, but the statistical programs of seasonal adjustment corrected only by the number of working days of the official calendar and not for the days actually worked. ”
The pitch of the quarter, then observes Confindustria, “remains positive”. And in February, “and ‘a possible rebound of the attivita’ even more ‘stronger than estimated.” In the same month the PMI manufacturing and ‘rose two points, to 51.9 (up to July 2014), well above the expectations that pointed to 50.2. All components showed significant progress: that of production, in particular, and ‘increased by 2.9 points (to 54.1, up to eight months); for the first time since last October new orders show an increase (51.2 to 47.8), and that ‘was also supported by domestic demand, while foreign demand is rising sharply from the previous month (+2.3 points , 55.2).
(Adnkronos)
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