Thursday, September 11, 2014

The decline in income freezes consumption – Il Sole 24 Ore

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This article was published on 11 September 2014 at 06:38.


The miracle did not happen. Consumption is practically at a standstill: you spend less and only for the necessary with disposable income that is back to 30 years ago. The effect Renzi with the bonus of 80 euro which was heard in the spring has weakened and has not left its mark. Also because Italians – who give more and more to the costs extra (from trips to the meal out of the house to the health and clothing) – will undergo a new one: l ‘”Tasi effect,” the tribute that among the many cares more the uncertainty that characterizes it.
The last war report on the state of health of the economy of Italian families is contained in the update note of the report released yesterday by Confcommercio consumption. An endless stream of negative numbers. Last year, household spending declined by 2.5%, a decrease of 7.6% in eight years, during which real disposable income per capita fell by 13.1%, amounting to a amount of 2,590 euro each. This year, according to the Confcommercio the trend will be virtually flat: the closure of consumption should settle on a fragile + 0.2%, while the next year if you were to confirm growth is expected to reach a meager 0.7% (in compared to 1% of GDP).
photograph current consumption as well as to suffer from the severe crisis that hit the country in recent years has its roots even more profone. In just over 20 years consumption of Italians are infattti grew a total of only 12.3%, and this growth is due exclusively to the positive trend of the services. Phenomenon indicates that the traders as “the outsourcing of consumption ‘, that is to say that more and more families are forced to prioritize services compared to goods. The first, in fact, now cover 53% of the total expenditure (from 41.8% in 1992), while the latter have fallen from 58.2 to 47%. The clearest evidence of this shift relates to the use of services such as mobile phones or the internet that have taken the place of consumption once privileged such as clothing or food.
Not only that, according to the note of confcommercio consumption so-called “forced” (from the house to gasoline, health insurance other) now cover 41% of the total, for the house, spending forced by definition, it has gone from 17.1% to 23.9% of total. In the end then the amount that each family has at its disposal for the rest, and on which, therefore, freedom of choice, has been reduced: the index of the effective possibilities of consumption is in fact dropped from 14,300 to 10,900 euro 1992 An earthquake that has changed the way in which open and close the wallet. In 2013, Italians have given especially to pastifuori home (-4.1%) and in particular for household power (-4.6%), travel and holidays (-3.8%) to self care and health (-3.5%). With a real collapse of spending on clothing and footwear (-6.3%). And this year, although more weakened, remain the minus signs.
The starting point remains the difficulty of arriving at the end of the month: the disposable income of households is in fact Italian firm to the levels of 30 years ago. In 2014, the income is equal to 17,400 euro (as in 2013), while in 1986 was 17,200 euro. On the whole then weighs the trust of consumers splashed up in the spring thanks to the advent of the Government Renzi and his ads culminated in the 80 euro bonus, but that has now faded, “producing only modest effects on spending behavior between April and July» emphasizes the Uffico studies Confcommercio. Consumers are in fact returned to look to the future with concern: too many uncertainties, starting with those on fees, Tasi in the front row. Now if the ads do not follow “coherent actions” this climate of trust “does not consolidate.” The President of Confcommercio Sangalli but still gives credit to the Prime Minister: “The top priority in Italy remains the reduction of taxes. I am convinced that Renzi will succeed to extend the bonus of 80 euro. “
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