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This article was published on 16 September 2014 at 13:32.
The last change is the 16 September 2014 at 15:22.
Italy this year will not come out of the recession. After the OECD and the Bank of Italy, also Confindustria size estimates of the GDP. According to the report “Economic scenarios” of the Centre for the Study of Astronomy avenue, presented today, the Italian GDP will fall by 0.4% this year. The recovery is uteriormente postponed in 2015, an increase limited to 0.5%. The previous estimates of CSC common in June, showed in fact an increase of 0.2% in 2014 and 1% in 2015 Csc therefore warns that “we can and must react quickly with measures to raise competitiveness and investment: the results would come quickly. ” The Study Centre Confindustria ‘focuses on the return to GDP growth in the first quarter of 2015. ”
Deficit / GDP to 3% in 2014
CSC estimates that the deficit / GDP ratio will worsen. It will risk to exceed the European standards, amounting to 3% this year and 2.9% in 2015 while the debt / GDP ratio will rise to 137% this year from 132.6% in 2013 to climb to a height of at 137.9% next year.
Inflation: 0.3% in 2014, 0.5% in 2015
According to the Centre for the Study of Confindustria growth consumer prices will be slightly greater than zero in the coming months and ascend a few tenths of a point in 2015 In the new estimates released today, inflation will rise in fact 0.3% in 2014 and 0.5% in 2015. June estimates indicated an increase of 0.5% in 2014 and 0.9% in 2015.
Unemployment at 12.5% in 2014 and in 2015
The rate of unemployment in Italy will instead anchored to 12.5% in 2014 and 2015 in order to have a complete picture of the weakness of the Italian labor market, says the CSC, are estimated about 3.2 million unemployed in the second quarter 2014, while 7.8 million people who, in one way or another missing work.
Consumption + Investment 0.1% in 2014 down 2.3%
household spending after having declined for three consecutive years, however, is intended to increase 0.1% in 2014 and accelerate further in 2015 (+ 0.5%). According to the CSC, it is likely that the recovery in consumption, changes slightly positive after the first two quarters of 2014, should be continued in the third quarter of the year, albeit slowly. While investment fall again in 2014 (-2.3%) and will share in 2015 (+0.8%).
It loosens credit crunch, but many companies still in trouble
credit crunch loosens the grip, but many companies still have difficulties in accessing bank loans. The Centro Studi Confindustria reports that the loans granted to Italian firms shows signs of rising after the attenuation of the fall in the first half of 2014 In July, the loans have increased by 0.2%, after having stagnated in June. But “there are still many companies that do not get the required loans’: 13.1% in manufacturing in August, from 15.6% at the beginning of the year (6.9% in the first half of 2011).
Law stability, to 15.9 billion in 2015 have yet to be retrieved
Confindustria also estimates that “in order to finance a series of commitments already provided,” the law of 2015 as the stability “minimal hypothesis” must be allocated to 18.6 billion next year, 25.7 in 2016, 30.3 in 2017, in particular, for 2015, 2.7 billion have already been identified by the Dl personal income tax cuts, but for other 15.9 “high is the risk of more traditional roofs.”
Confindustria: avoid linear cuts
are from “ward,” says the director general of Confindustria Marcella Panucci, “the linear cuts in spending that have characterized the last years , “as well as” an increase in taxation that would certainly be negative in terms of growth and recovery of the country’s competitiveness. ” The Stability Law 2015 will then point “of selective cuts that hit the unproductive expenditure and do not hamper the productive one,” warns via Astronomy, and do not affect an investment policy that goes instead revived. “The investments are today one-third lower than in 2007,” recalls the director of the research center of Confindustria, Luca Paolazzi, with serious effects on the crisis, “how in particular in the construction sector.”
Act on tax wedge and boost structural reforms
For Confindustria ‘remains a puzzle, that time will solve soon to tell whether the expansionary measures adopted by the Government before the summer to be effective. ” The new report of the study center emphasizes that “the law of stability can be strengthened by working on tax wedge and public and private investment” and “structural reforms.” While on the consumer side, “the government measures of income support, once made permanent, will help boost the dynamics of household spending, especially in 2015.”
Panucci: Review Article 18 in a comprehensive reform
For Confindustria ‘also Article 18 should be revised, “but in the context of” a comprehensive reform of the labor market’ in terms of flexicurity, flexibility and protection.’s the position of Confindustria reiterated by dg, Marcella Panucci for which “serves a profound revision to make it more dynamic labor market, with greater flexibility in the management of labor relations” that touches Article 18 “not as the starting point of discussion but as a point of arrival, “also” eliminating the reinstatement. “
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