The European Central Bank suggests to them a “further consolidation of the budget to be in line with the Stability Pact.” In the monthly bulletin, the institute headed by Mario Draghi Remember that “risks remain on the Italian government’s ability to meet the objective of a budget deficit equal to 2.6% of GDP in 2014, especially after the economic situation is worse than expected result. ” As a result, additional interventions would be appropriate, as already stressed by the EU Commission in June and July. Read: corrective measures. Other money by finding over 20 billion savings that the Government of Matteo Renzi , after having liquidated the commissioner spending review Carlo Cottarelli , aims to find sforbiciando expenses of ministries . As is known, the government has already asked Brussels to postpone to 2016 the target of structural balance , which is necessary to ensure that the debt starts to reverse course . But the request was accepted with reserve, and only on condition that the country guarantees a “strengthening of the budgetary measures” to contain the debt / GDP ratio. Not for nothing led by the Ministry of Economy Pier Carlo Padoan has decided to postpone the October 1 submission of the update of the Document of economics and finance, so you can count on a pil bit ‘higher because recalculated based on the new calculation methodology Esa 2010 . And so on quotients deficit / GDP and debt / GDP ratio slightly better than those of today. But, inasmuch as the former is approaching the maximum allowed by Brussels, 3%, a positive effect of 0.2 percentage points as the one that emerged from the revaluation of GDP in 2011 just announced by Istat would not be enough to bring it to 2 , 6 percent. The last word is up to the EU Commission, which in November will give its opinion on the Stability Law to which the executive is working. L ECB recalls that Italy has a structural deficit of 0.7% of GDP, compared with 0.1% required. A difference that is worth more than 8 billion euro.
Improve the general government deficit – In Italy, Frankfurt notes, “the government reported in the first quarter of the year a deficit of around 1.6% of GDP on an annual basis “, an improvement of 0.2 percentage points on the same period last year due to a decline in public spending, especially in the capital account. The latest data on tax revenues for the six months to June 2014 show a decrease of about 0.1 percent of GDP on an annual basis compared to the same period last year. “This decline may, however, be attributable to the different deadlines for the payment of taxes, in particular in the case of taxation of self-employment and property.”
“Downside risks to the economic prospects of the Eurozone “ – In the Eurotower bulletin reiterates that” the risks to the eurozone economic outlook continues to be tilted to the downside, “explaining that the slowdown in growth could slow private investment and geopolitical risks could have a more pronounced further negative impact on the confidence of businesses and households. As explained by Draghi at a press conference last Thursday, the slight recovery in the euro area has already deflated. “In the third quarter, growth in the eurozone, according to the indicators available until August, will lose momentum and will continue to expand at a modest pace.” It will continue to weigh on the recovery, among other things, “a high rate of unemployment.”
“In Covenant sufficient flexibility to make reforms” – The ECB then returns to the theme of the reforms: “Several Member States have taken important steps, while others have yet to get the necessary regulatory instruments and then proceed with the implementation of the measures.” Now “there is a clear impetus to impress efforts made to boost growth and employment on a sustainable basis in the euro area” and “it is necessary to act decisively on the side of structural reforms in markets real and services and work , and take action to improve the environment in which businesses operate. ” All but without “undermine progress achieved in fiscal consolidation, but proceed in line with the Stability and Growth Pact.” The pact “has the effect of trust anchor; flexibility allowed within the rules makes it possible to cope with budget costs associated with major structural reforms, as well as to support demand. There is also the margin to achieve a composition of budgetary policies more conducive to growth. ”
Inflation rising only from 2015 – As for the risk of deflation, against which the ECB has intervened by cutting interest rates and launching a plan for the purchase of asset-backed securities (Abs), “based on the information currently available, HICP inflation is expected to remain at low levels in the next few months, and then gradually increase during 2015 and 2016.” The macroeconomic projections made by analysts in September, the ECB suggest consumer inflation of 0.6% in 2014, 1.1 in 2015 and 1.4 in 2016, the Governing Council of the ECB “will continue to follow attention to the risks to the outlook for prices in the medium term “and” will look at the possible effects of the weakening of growth, by geopolitical developments, changes in the exchange rate and the transmission of monetary policy measures taken. “
“Household debt in the euro area remained at a high level, although it has continued to decline gradually.” The estimates for the second quarter of 2014 indicate that household debt “has increased slightly.” In contrast, the interest burden of the household sector “would be dropped again, albeit only marginally, in the same quarter.”
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