The French campaign has just begun, and now is climbing, the fever spread. But the days of open markets are many before opening the polls of the French presidential election, on April 23. For that date, you will also know the fate of the legislature Italian, that is, if we are going to elections within the year.
While I am certain the German ones, with Angela Merkel for the first time in the difficulty that attends the comeback of his rival social democrat. Everything suggests that will be in addition to the days in which the events of the spread – i.e., betting markets on the greater or lesser reliability of a Country to repay its public debt – they will remind us of "so rude", to say it with the minister Padoan, our woe.
The first trouble is the one on which you commented yesterday a Novel: the public debt that does not move from its towering heights. For Italy, the quota is over the 133% of Gdp. The fault of governments past, that have done nothing to affect it, remind one of the penalty takers who look at the numerator of the ratio, the debt.
But the fault also of the denominator of the ratio, the inner product that doesn’t grow, I notice the critics of the austerity imposed by european rules, which fail in an attempt to simultaneously reach the objectives set out in Maastricht, exactly 25 years ago: if you do the fight to the deficit in times of recession, this worsens and necessarily salt, the ratio of debt to Gdp.
he Was the required flexibility and intelligence in the interpretation of these rules, especially under the blows of the crisis: but flexibility, solidarity managed, not given to discretion, to governments that have not known how to use it to push really growth, such as the Italian one, and have the privileged of measures to bring more voters to the productive investment. The day before yesterday, the Financial Times noted that the eurozone economy is going better than expected and has a performance better than that of the United States: but "with the important exception of Italy," which limps under 1% growth.
The second problem is less obvious, because the people involved do not want to see him, and regards the determined party of no-the euro, now located mainly in the area of the right wing nationalist.
the trend of The spread of these hours shows that the first effect of the crisis of the single currency, the increase in the cost which you pays back the debt. The slogan of the borders closed will please many, but if it is difficult to say how to build a wall along the Mediterranean, even more complicated is the design of a system of nation States is perfectly self-sufficient, even in the financing of its debt. In other words: the ministers of finance of hypothetical governments Pen or Salvini-Cricket should explain how you will repay the public debt, that immediately would rise before the end of the euro, the only prediction of that event (in addition explain where the export of domestic goods, since that would soon become obvious retaliatory measures by trading partners).
Maybe it would be good in the long european election campaign that is preparing, go out from the slogan and by the anathemas, and explain concretely how to handle a Frexit or a Italexit: in Greece, we had tried Varoufakis, but he has not convinced his own party, although fairly radical at the time.
But there is a third woe that the mean spread personifies, and is in use in the key policy. In the case of italy, today it can come in handy, as it was in 2011, to the party who wants to postpone the elections, which may have the temptation to use again, for the umpteenth time, the spectrum of the financial crisis to avoid the urns. Also in this case, it would be to summon the monsters without ever descending to the ground to face them.
The spread is not a monster nor a disease, it is mysterious, but only a thermometer
diseases of the individual Countries and which has the whole of Europe – including Germany, with its trade surplus, which is a source of instability for the whole system. Instead of running away, or breaking the thermometer, it would be better to begin in a hurry to treat them.
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