ROME, the analysts say by weeks, even months. The victory of the No to the constitutional referendum threatens to collapse on investor confidence, on the Italian banking system and the capital increases of the system starting from the Mps. That is the bank of Italy, however, predict a “peak volatility” on the Italian market (read turbulence), makes a little impression. This is not so for the president of the Council Matteo Renzi. No surprise. “Physiological” for the premier “the concern of the markets for a new policy”. But this is not, “is not the paper of the fear that we want to play politically,” insists Renzi on the occasion of the press conference on 1,000 days.
in Short, it is obvious the axiom reforms-Gdp, no reform spreads(yesterday to reach 182). But “the task of those who support the campaign for the Yes is to fill in all of the reasons, the reasons of the “Yes”. This is best play, “the great opportunity for change”. See it this way Renzi. But “if we play evoking the fears we don’t go anywhere”. The right to return and confine the scenarios of greatest concern to page 28 of the Financial Stability report of the bank of Italy. That “does the job”, of course, stresses the prime minister, “a profession is different from our own,” says Renzi.
For the rest, even if “it is obvious the wait for the referendum, not to interfere,” insists the premier, “with the choices of the shareholders and to the markets, and we solve the problems of a single bank (Mps, ndr)”. Rather, “we defend the account holders. No one will lose a cent of your own account”. In the meantime, however, turmoil or no, the referendum is “a game totally open considering the large number of undecided”. The premier is convinced that, with a turnout of 60 per cent, “you win with 15 million of consents” to search one by one among those who are not yet decided. In the meantime, the other that polls, says Renzi: “In the 2016 polls not have guessed only one of the results of the general elections, it is not that they start this time.” If you then win the No, “we’ll find out just living, what is going to happen”. But of course, “we will review the political situation.&# 8221;
THE DANGERS
For those who, like the bank of Italy, as says Renzi, does his job, there is not only to record the sudden rise of the thermometer in the volatility of the Italian riding with the referendum, there is, in short, only the high-demand protection from uncertainty advanced by the investors. Via Nazionale, another “source of uncertainty” on the banks, and therefore markets, are the important regulatory initiatives of the international in the course of completion, such as the reform on capital requirements (Basel 3) and (4), the introduction of those necessary to absorb losses in the event of termination (Mrel) and the entry into force in 2018 of the new accounting standard on the valuation of financial instruments (Ifrs 9)”. A sign that there is some concern about the new posts coming on the capital of banks, albeit still to be defined.
The Bank of Italy continues to call for caution to adjusters international. The is the time. Because it takes into account “over which the expected benefits of the long-term costs of the short term”. As you say, that the damage on the growth, in the short term, in fact, should not end-up to be superior to the needs of protection from future risks. And still on the Mrel, “robust analysis of impact”: not a trivial given the results of the last actions of the regulators on the international market, starting from the european banking Authority (Eba).
Uncertainty aside, there’s good news in the last financial Stability Report: there are significant signs of improvement on bad loans. The flows are decreasing rapidly towards pre-crisis levels. But above all, there is a reduction of the stocks of the net, finally.
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