A strong peak in the volatility of the Italian stock market is expected at the beginning of December in correspondence with the constitutional referendum. Writes the the Bank of Italy report on financial stability. The volatility is measured on the prices of options on the index stock; from a chart published in the report, you can see a peak in implied volatility, which in December, jumped more than 4 percent. From the beginning of the year, notes the report by the National, there is a differential high between the implied volatility of the Italian market and that of the euro area. The scissor is open at the beginning of this year when the start of the massive sales on the securi ties of Italian banks. The stock index, underlines the via Nazionale, “continues to suffer from the weakness of the banking sector, which the ratings of the investors on the profitability remain unfavourable”.
the Referendum, forward the No. But on the merit of the Italian favourable
The recovery of the Italian economy is not reflecting on the growth of bank credit. The report shows the contrary, as the indicator of the relationship between bank credit to Gdp (credit-to-gdp ratio) has a significantly worsened in November when compared to six months ago. The deviation of the relationship between bank credit and gdp from its long-term trend is negative by about seven percentage points, according to the model developed by the Bank of Italy (the indicator was positive by more than 2% again in 2012). Compared to data released in April (-5%), there is a sharp deterioration, and estimates of the Bank of Italy does not portend an acceleration of the bank credit, nor in 2017 or 2018.
Mps, not just bail-in in the adverse scenario
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the bank of Italy has also commented on the case bank being the most delicate of the moment, that of the Mps. Monte dei Paschi, says Via Nazionale, is trying to achieve a “complex” and “the implementation risks arise mainly from the high volatility that has recently characterized the stock markets”. The report recalls, before describing briefly the characteristics of the operation and the Rocca Salimbeni is trying to achieve (sale of the entire portfolio to be covered by a capital increase of 5 billion), the circumstances that led to the adoption of that plan is “complex”: the rejection to the stress test of July. Mps was the only bank of the sample to miss it in the situation of stress, the Cet1 capital was even negative, ndr). The negative result that, according to via Nazionale depended “in large measure” from the methodology used by the Eba that “ill-suited” to a bank like Mps, for whom “deep restructuring” ;.
The spread, how it moves and why
(Il Sole 24 Ore Radiocor)
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