21/November/2016 – h. 16.49
In 2016, Istat provides for an increase of the Italian Gdp, equal to 0.8%, in real terms, which would follow a growth of 0.9% in 2017. In the document ‘The perspectives for the Italian economy in 2016-2017, the national Institute of statistics includes for both years a significant contribution to Gdp growth from domestic demand net of inventories: 1.2 percentage points in 2016 and by 1.1 percentage points in 2017. The net foreign demand and the change in stocks would provide, instead, a contribution slightly negative.
In 2016, the consumption expenditure of households in real terms is estimated at an increase of 1.2%, fuelled by the increase in the disposable income and the improvement of the conditions of the labour market. The growth of spending would continue to function at a similar pace in 2017 (+1,1%). Always in the current year, Istat provides, therefore, a strengthening of investment (+2,0%), followed by an acceleration in 2017 (+2,7%). In addition to the improvement of the expectations on the growth of the economy and on the conditions of the credit market, the investment would have been entitled to fiscal measures in support of businesses.
Among the current framework of the forecast and the one presented in may 2016, reports the Istat, the Gdp growth rate for 2016 was revised down by 0.3 percentage points. The lower vitality of the private consumption and investment led to a downward revision of the contribution of domestic demand net of inventories by 0.2 percentage points. Foreign demand has helped slightly negative growth (0.1 percentage points) in line with what is reported in the forecast released in may.
employment is expected to increase in 2016 (+0.9% in terms of units of work) in conjunction with a reduction in the unemployment rate (to 11.5%), as underlined by Istat. The improvements in the labour market, it said in a note, should also continue in 2017, but at a slower pace: the work units are expected to increase by 0.6% and unemployment would be 11.3%.
“Already in the first months of 2017 it is expected a resumption of inflation, with an intensity more pronounced during the second half of the year.’ According to the institute, “eterminanti will be the conditions of cost on the international markets of raw materials, in particular for the energy supply. In the context of a recovery in oil prices, the contribution to inflation of the energy component is expected to become positive”. An element that is to be associated with “the depreciation content of the exchange rate of the euro against the dollar, which will push up the costs of other inputs are imported”. In the middle of the 2016, according to estimates by Istat, the household expenditure deflator will be unchanged compared to last year, while in 2017, the growth of the deflator of household expenditure will amount on average to 1%.
In 2016, Istat provides for an increase of the Italian Gdp, equal to 0.8%, in real terms, which would follow a growth of 0.9% in 2017. In the document ‘The perspectives for the Italian economy in 2016-2017, the national Institute of statistics includes for both years a significant contribution to Gdp growth from domestic demand net of inventories: 1.2 percentage points in 2016 and by 1.1 percentage points in 2017. The net foreign demand and the change in stocks would provide, instead, a contribution slightly negative.
In 2016, the spending for household consumption in real terms is estimated at an increase of 1.2%, fuelled by the increase in the disposable income and the improvement of the conditions of the labour market. The growth of spending would continue to function at a similar pace in 2017 (+1,1%). Always in the current year, Istat provides, therefore, a strengthening of investment (+2,0%), followed by an acceleration in 2017 (+2,7%). In addition to the improvement of the expectations on the growth of the economy and on the conditions of the credit market, the investment would have been entitled to fiscal measures in support of businesses.
current the framework of forecast and the one presented in may 2016, reports the Istat, the Gdp growth rate for 2016 was revised down by 0.3 percentage points. The lower vitality of the private consumption and investment led to a downward revision of the contribution of domestic demand net of inventories by 0.2 percentage points. Foreign demand has helped slightly negative growth (0.1 percentage points) in line with what is reported in the forecast released in may.
employment should increase in 2016 (+0.9% in terms of units of work) in conjunction with a reduction in the unemployment rate (to 11.5%), as underlined by Istat. The improvements in the labour market, it said in a note, should also continue in 2017, but at a slower pace: the work units are expected to increase by 0.6% and unemployment would be 11.3%.
“Already in the first months by 2017 it is expected a resumption of inflation, with an intensity more pronounced during the second half of the year.’ According to the institute, “eterminanti will be the conditions of cost on the international markets of raw materials, in particular for the energy supply. In the context of a recovery in oil prices, the contribution to inflation of the energy component is expected to become positive”. An element that is to be associated with “the depreciation content of the exchange rate of the euro against the dollar, which will push up the costs of other inputs are imported”. In the middle of the 2016, according to estimates by Istat, the household expenditure deflator will be unchanged compared to last year, while in 2017, the growth of the deflator of household expenditure will amount on average to 1%.
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