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Even the realist Governor of the Bank of Italy he enrolled in law in the owls category Renzi. The Via Nazionale institute, in fact, in the worst day of Renzi (struggling with the justification of a non-flattering election result) has led the worst affront to the Government. He has revised downwards its growth estimates of GDP for 2016 and 2017. But the feeling of the policy often does not coincide with the cold data, real and not demagogic, econometrics. The research department of the Bank of Italy has so written: “In the first quarter of this year the GDP increased by 0.3%, with a slight strengthening against the end of 2015; The most recent economic information indicates a similar growth for the current quarter. Average annual increase of 1.1% and the product would accelerate to 1.2% both in 2017 and in 2018 ». The government, instead it had originally given a forecasting then reduced by 1.6% to 1.2%. Projections made by the Bank of Italy economists are, unfortunately for the prime minister, subject to appeal because they occur in the exercise coordinated Eurosystem. “These assessments are in line with those of the major international institutions,” but “to the macroeconomic projections published in the January Economic Bulletin the growth estimate was revised downwards” from + 1.5% forecast for 2016 and + 1.4% for 2017, “mainly reflecting a weaker world economy.” Domestic demand, added the Bank of Italy, “it would be sustained by an acceleration in consumption, driven by improving conditions in the labor market, and the recovery of investment, which would benefit from favorable financial conditions and, for the current year, the incentives spending on capital goods introduced in the last Stability law. ”
Inflation, however, worry the European Central Bank, will remain zero in the middle of this year before recovering only gradually (to 0.9% in 2017 and 1.5% in 2018), reflecting the contributions of the components imported and domestic prices, mainly driven by the cyclical recovery in profit margins. Excluding the energy component, the consumer price index will rise by 0.6% in 2016, 1% in 2017 and 1.5% in 2018. As for the work, the Bank of Italy estimates that ‘l’ total employment increased by around 2% over the three years 2016-18. “
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