A Fed “dovish” confirms the cost of borrowing, slower than expected rates will rise – Finanza.com

The US central bank announced that it had confirmed at ‘unanimity the Fed Funds rate in the range 0.25-0.5%. The decision is in line with analysts’ estimates, the light of the referendum on the permanence of Britain in the European Union and the worst “employment report” the last six years, had allocated close to a zero percent chance .

unlikely, always as measured by Bloomberg, also an intervention in July and September , estimated in the afternoon to 15.7 and 32.2 percent, while the November and December data were respectively 33.6 and 47.9%.

From the meeting of the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee), the operational arm of the Federal Reserve, has emerged as “the growth of jobs has diminished and business investment were ‘minor’ ‘and also indexes that indicate the inflation trend” have marked a decline. “in contrast, the trend of ‘economy “seems to have accelerated.”

Indications “dovish” (as “dove”, accommodating) those who come from so-called “dot plot”, the projections on the evolution of the rates according to every member of the Monetary Policy Committee. Only 2 members of the FOMC are expecting more than two monetary tightening in 2016 (they were 7 in March) meeting, the majority (9 of 17) sees two increments of rates but the frond of those who believe that there will be only increase has saw its members spend 1 to 6.

Overall, 2016 should close with rate 0.875% , at the end of 2017 the benchmark rate is estimated at ’1,625% a year later to stand at 2.375%.

Slight downward revision to the outlook for economic growth, view 2% this year and the next two . the estimates on inflation amounted to 1.4% in the current year to 1.9% next year and 2% in 2018 while the unemployment rate is expected to respectively 4.7, 4.6 and to 4.6 percent.

Great expectations for the words that Janet Yellen will speak at the press conference that will begin in a few minutes. “The Yellen-we read in the weekly report Intermobiliare- Bank should maintain an attitude, in general, the positive trend of the US economy.”

“Our forecast is that communication is neutral and leave open all future options, “reports an elaborate note by Intesa Sanpaolo economists. The figure for the balance of payrolls in May, when payrolls grew by “only” 38 000 units, “is the result in part of the monthly volatility and partly of a physiological slowdown.” So, “if this interpretation is correct”, to attend the next upside just wait “July or September, depending on the data and on market reactions to the British referendum.”