Istat: GDP growth remains subdued in the first quarter is estimated + 0.1% – Il Sole 24 Ore

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This article was published on March 9, 2016 at 10:16 hours.
the last change is the March 9, 2016 at 10:50 hours.

“in a context of weakening of the global recovery, the Italian economy is expected to evolve at a pace moderate in the first quarter of 2016 “. The forecast is Istat, that “positive signals coming from the service sector and the construction in the face of a less favorable trend in the industry. reads the monthly notice on the Italian economy, “show an improving employment, especially that indefinitely, favored also by the measures to support the recruitment, while inflation and ‘reported in the latest data,” »negative territory.

the trend of economic sectors
In particular, the cyclical change in real GDP expected for the first quarter is slightly positive (+ 0.1%), with a confidence interval of between -0.1% and + 0.3%.
the increase in the GDP would contribute positively private consumption, compared with a negative contribution of demand foreign net and public consumption while the dynamics of investments (gross inventories) would be essentially flat. In this scenario, the growth gained for 2016 is 0,4%.

For the most important companies in the relief Jobs-act
For Italian companies, the tax relief introduced by the law of stability have represented an incentive to take most important of the contract to increasing protections contained in the Jobs-act. To read the monthly notice on the Italian economy, half of manufacturing firms that reported an increase in employment between January and November 2015, the contribution exemptions have been a relevant factor. The new contract at increasing protection seems to have exerted a positive role, underlines the Institute of Statistics, albeit with less intensity in the period under investigation: between firms manufacturing that have resorted to new staff, it was considered very or quite important for the recruitment by 35% of businesses, especially in the transport sector. The importance of Irap incentives for employers who hire indefinitely, is less decisive than previous measures. In the service sector, the role played by contribution exemptions on the decisions of new hires is more incisive: the share of companies that have considered this news very or fairly important legislation is equal to 61%, especially in the areas of information and communication and tourism. The contract on increasing protection seems to have had a more significant manner in the services to manufacturing. The share of those who judged the very or fairly important legislation in the decision to hire was 49.5%, especially among companies in the information and communication sector, compared with 40% of firms that reported little or no relevance.

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