MILAN – The update eve of the economic forecasts of the European Commission is still living the repartee between Italy and Brussels on the issue of flexibility of public finances, linked in particular to the costs incurred to address the ‘ emergency migrants. A take of government decisions defenses is Economy Minister Pier Carlo Padoan, claiming the legitimacy of more space on the budget requests submitted to the EU and still waiting for a final go-ahead. Words to which indirectly says the President of the Commission, Jean Claude Juncker, who opens positive openings for Italy and closes the door to the blind austerity.
The dell’Upb doubts. But the possibility of tick flexibility back the Parliamentary budget Office’s skepticism, the technical body which shall examine the economic documents before forwarding them to Brussels. The latter, in a dedicated focus to public accounts, said that “Italy should not take advantage in 2016 of flexibilities associated with the emergence migrants”, because it provides a level of spending in line with 2015 (3.2 billion), while the Commission should take into account “only within the limit of the increase over the previous year”. In short, we should spend more than last year to demand greater flexibility, while the budget planning document merely provides the same level of outputs. The problem, in view of the government, is that in the previous three years were spent 1.2 billion a year to deal with the emergency migrant, then there was the burden and has also been significant.
on the other hand, it had already been the same UPB – in a focus published in mid-December – which first raised the problem of interpretation of flexibility on the part of the EU Commission. In that document, the Office emphasized as a limited approach to the comparison of costs between one and the other would be detrimental “for countries such as Italy, who have found themselves faced with the phenomenon of immigration in advance compared with other countries and interventions financially significant and protracted. “
the Padoan response to the EPP. Only yesterday, the leader of the European People’s Party, Manfred Weber, went down heavy on the Italian request: “the Commission has given amassima flexibility in recent years, there are now no more room and i agree the socialists commissioners as Moscovici,” he thundered in the direction of Palazzo Chigi. and Prime Minister Matteo Renzi replied testily that Italy “does not take little lesson from any of his European friends,” Padoan today is back to point out what has been done in the Peninsula: “The reform of Italy’s effort is what leads us to ask with every right the management of a more flexible fiscal policy, as required by European rules. it is not something that we are inventing, “he argued during a debate at the Aspen with Chancellor of the Exchequer, George Osborne, who curiously is busy these days, with his government, in other negotiations with Brussels.
the case Schaeuble: “Just blackmail Italian”
the minister stressed that “Italy is not asking for anything new, nor incompatible with the rules”, because the debt will shrink and “so there is absolute compatibility with the budgetary rules. we hope that the answer is simply dissolved shortly part of commissisone and then to avoid uncertainty that certainly does not help the growth “, given that” weighs on the recovery. ” For Juncker, the rules on the flexibility introduced by the Commission “are largely sufficient to allow different countries, even those struggling with the worst problems, to propose budgets that match all the rules and requirements”. In any case, “the European Commission will play its role without a severe and stupid policy of austerity”. Juncker is also back on the controversy about 3 billion of funds earmarked for Turkey, to address the flow of migrants, thanking Italy for the decision to give the go ahead to the contribution (weighs 281 million). In the document on the bottom, meanwhile, emerges, Rome asked that his request to form part of separating from the calculation of the deficit in the context of the Stability and Growth Pact also “the full amount of the costs incurred by Italy since the crisis of the Libya”. Just what happened to the funds allocated to Ankara.
The point about the accounts and open fronts . Italy wants to turn three of flexibility clauses, which would allow it to raise the deficit, equal to 0.5% of GDP for the reforms (8 billion), a 0.4% investment (6.5 billion) and a – disputed – to 0.2% of GDP (3.3 billion) in emergency followed the migrants. The Italian deficit to be 2.4% of GDP in 2016, from 2.6% last year. Behind the scenes, it reconstructs Republic on newsstands, the deal proceeds and could find a meeting point in Italy request to correct a bit ‘shooting on the deficit this year, to get back a bit ‘of space next. If the EU would grant 13 billion of flexibility, you could fall to 2.2-2.3% of GDP deficit, without which the EU should open an excessive deficit procedure on Rome. But the game also includes the next year, when theoretically there would be 23 billion to be cut to get down to 1.1% deficit. A monstrous figure, which would absorb the whole pre-election Budget next fall: a danger that the government wants to avoid.
| Outlook for Itaia | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDP (var.% annual) | 0.4 | 0.9 | 1, 5 | 1.4 |
| Inflation (var.% annual) | 0, 2 | 0.2 | 1 | 1.9 |
| Unemployment ( %) | 12.7 | 12.2 | 11.8 | 11.6 |
| Deficit (% of GDP) | -3 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 1.6 |
| Debt (% of GDP) | 132.3 | 133 | 132.2 | 130 |
| current account balance (% of GDP) | 2 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 1.9 |
No comments:
Post a Comment