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This entry was posted on July 17, 2015 at 15:20.
Not only “the Italian economy has begun to expand.” But projections “foreshadow a gradual strengthening of the cyclical recovery.” In Economic Bulletin released today, the Bank of Italy revised its estimates of GDP growth compared to that disclosed in January (+ 0.4%) and also in April (+ 0.5%): + 0.7% for 2015 and 1.5% in 2016 (compared to 1.4% in Def content). An improvement mainly related to the recovery in investment and the first positive employment data.
Investments resume growth, also in building
The improvement in the confidence indicators of businesses and households it has been accompanied by a recovery in domestic demand – said the Bank of Italy – which has returned to contribute to growth, reflecting the sharp rise in imports. In the second quarter of 2015 growth continued at a rate similar to that of the first: in May industrial activity increased by 0.9%, more than offsetting the decline in April. The investments, which since 2008 had been reduced almost continuously, were already timidly resumed in 2014. The forecasts for 2015 are very positive: there is a clear + 5.3% compared to last year and turned positive even the trend of Investment in construction. The revision of the outlook for growth is largely attributable to the investment trend that however at the end of 2016 still remain, relative to GDP, lower than the historical average.
Disoccupaziopne under 12% in 2016
In April and May employment began to grow again. The unemployment rate has stabilized. Since the beginning of the year increased significantly the share of recruitment with permanent contracts, encouraged by recent Government measures. In spring it has reduced its reliance on wage supplementation. It increases the percentage of firms expected to expand employment. The measures to reduce the tax burden introduced by the last Stability Law would support employment by 0.2 percentage points. The recovery in production would result in an improvement in employment of 1.5 percentage points over two years. The unemployment rate would drop from 12.6% in 2014 to 11.9% in 2016.
Inflation positive: + 0.2% this year, 1 , 1% in 2016
Inflation, negative at the beginning of the year, turned positive, although it remains at historically low values
. The expectations of households and businesses will foreshadow a further increase. Hence the estimate of + 0.2% this year and 1.1% in 2016.
After 3 years growing families loans
In parallel the ‘monetary expansion (in particular the large Italian banks’ recourse to refinancing operations aimed at the longer term and the purchase program Qe), you are gradually being transmitted to the conditions of the credit. Loans to households and those to manufacturing companies “have increased, for the first time in more than three years’ respectively 0.4% and 0.7%. She continues, and sin extends, also reducing the cost of loans to businesses, including small and medium-sized companies, who report in the polls easier access to finance. The decline in business loans eased; returned to growth than the manufacturing sector and loans to households for the first time in over three years.
“Bad bank would support dynamic credit”
Bankitalia noted though that there was still no solution to the problem of “high consistency of bad loans,” which continues “to divert resources from the economy.” Not only. Acceleration of disposal of bad loans “would help sustain the growth in lending.” Via Nazionale in this regard it noted that recent measures in June the Council of Ministers (planned deductibility of write-downs on loans by the year – and no longer on 5 – reducing the time of recovery of debts ,, ed) “may induce a increase in the value of impaired loans and to facilitate the creation of a secondary market. ” While the creation of a specialized company for the purchase of such credits (the so-called bad bank, ed) is still “the subject of dialogue between the Italian authorities and the European Commission.”
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