SE WIN ‘THE SI’
The “Yes” to the proposal of the former Troika – for what they are worth polls last week – seems to be the most likely outcome of the referendum. 70% of Greeks want to stay in the euro. And 57% are willing to do that even if it put the signature of the Government under an agreement difficult to digest.
What if this really will be the outcome? Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras, who also is campaigning for the no, was clear: “We will respect the will of the electorate, even though I’m not a man for all seasons”, suggesting that it might resign. A second after the proclamation of the victory of the yes, therefore, should take the plane to Brussels and formalize the OK from Greece to the proposals published by Jean-Claude Juncker, a couple of days ago: new pension cuts, objectives rigid surplus primary, a tough tax reform, military spending cuts, privatization and liberalization of the labor market. Creditors then should unlock aid needed to pay off the debts of Athens: the last tranche of 7.2 billion assistance plan from 240 billion to 11 billion in bank bailout fund. Just enough to repay the 1.6 billion loans already expired and the IMF about 7 due to the ECB in July and August.
It is doubtful that everything runs so smoothly. Indeed, most observers draw different scenarios. The first thing to understand, in theory, is whether the proposal on which the Greeks will vote again on the table on July 6. In theory, in fact, it ends tomorrow at the close of the aid program, although the choice of Juncker to make it public suggests that Brussels is willing to keep it alive at least until Sunday. The real problem is keeping ahead of Syriza a result of this kind. The reforms required by the Troika would have to be approved in Parliament to release the funds. And – with all the good will of Tsipras – it seems very unlikely that the more radical wing of his party is to vote on them disposa holding your nose. The same Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis admitted that with the victory of the yes it might be necessary to “reconfigure the government.”
The most likely outcome would therefore be two: Tsipras realizes not have the votes in classroom and resigned calling the elections. There is already talk of 26 July (must be made within one month). The Constitution allows him to this point he choose candidates from Syriza cutting out those opposed to compromise. The party of Prime Minister of the rest is still leading in all the polls. So much so that the opposition, in this case, might join forces in a sign pro-euro to win the majority of the premium.
The other hypothesis is that of a national unity government. Former Prime Minister Antonis Samaras has already asked Tsipras, arguing that neither he nor his rival should be part of it. The Prime Minister could groped an executive emergency without involving the center, but contenting marks of To Potami and PASOK (17:13 respectively). But perhaps it would not be enough. The government Syriza-Anel has a majority of 162 to 300. The radical wing of the left against 30-40 deputies and Anel 13. It seems so difficult a national unity government without the votes of the center-right New Democracy, hypotheses indigestible for Tsipras.
SE WIN ‘THE NO
The “no” at a disadvantage in the referendum on Sunday, despite the government – with shrewd move – has placed the box ” oki “(no in greek) above that of” Nai “(yes) on the ballot in the press at this time. The consequences of a victory not, many say, are likely to be much more complex to manage. Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras said that an outcome of this kind would give him a mandate to push back to the sender compromise and come to Brussels to negotiate a better one of the strong result of the referendum. It remains to be seen whether then find someone sitting across the table. Most likely not.
The Troika could not consider as the closure of the negotiations. Not only it does not reopen negotiations, then, but would close permanently its program forcing the ECB to pull the plug of the funding to Athens, by suspending the emergency credit lines in recent months have kept alive the country. At that point, the state no money could not repay creditors and to reopen the banks would be forced to beat its own currency. The assumptions on the table in this regard are two: either a parallel currency that takes into being (while depreciating by 30-40%), the euro or the drachma, sign the final farewell to the single currency. The social and economic consequences (bankruptcy and nationalization of banks, shocks on the economy) would be tragic and easy to imagine. Especially for a country that has already lost 27% of GDP in five years of austerity. Europe, many say not be far behind. Rather. Could then intervene with emergency loans, but the damage would be saved. And probably irreparable.
The question to one million dollars (that could radically change this scenario) is if the President of the Republic Prokopis Pavlopoulos, man of the center-right New Democracy, to assist mere spectator in this cupio dissolve . The role of head of state in Greece is almost entirely symbolic. Pavlopoulos has however a deadly weapon in his hand: his resignation. “I’ll never be the president of a country emerging from the single currency,” he said clearly. And if he gave his resignation, there would be an immediate consequence: the country should be within one month for election. Disrupting the cards and re-opening games. Although at that point it would go to vote without any network of financial protection by the EU.
The Greek observers believe that in case of victory of no, they are just the resignation of the head of state the solution more likely. In both cases, however, for the national social situation would stress strong: capital controls would remain definitely active. The roofs withdrawals idem. And in the case of elections remain doubts about who would go to win. Syriza is ahead in the polls. PASOK and New Democracy have not been able to renew itself after bringing the country to collapse in 2010. And on the horizon is always the nightmare of Golden Dawn, although the leaders of the neo-Nazi party are mostly under house arrest. Chrysi Avgi traveling at this time in the polls (which have always underestimated the electoral weight) of about 6% and in the last election was the third party in the country.
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