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This article was published on 25 August 2014 at 15:06.
The last change is the 25 August 2014 at 15:08.
New frost on the German economy: the index Ifo business confidence on the accused in August the fourth consecutive decline on a monthly basis and stood at a new low since July 2013 of 106.3 points (108 points in July and 107 in the analysts’ consensus).
The index is compiled by the research institute of Monaco of Bavaria, Ifo, based on the answers of 7 thousand German managers who expressed their concern, in August, especially the conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine, and the slow speed of the partner countries in Europe. Gia ‘after three months in the fall, experts point out, one can speak of a change in trend but the forecast for the end of 2014 remain mostly positive.
“The German economy loses more” speed “,” he commmentato Hans-Werner Sinn, president of the Ifo Institute. The index, which is considered the most important barometer of the economy with high reliability and indicates the likely trend in the next six months, he is weakened and in the evaluation of the current situation and of that perspective. The component of the index that measures the current situation of businesses decreased from 112.9 points in July to 111.1 in August (112.1 expectations) while evaluating the expectations for the next six months has fallen from 103 4 to 101.7 points (102.2).
The deterioration has affected all sectors of activity but, in particular, wholesale, in turn, heavily dependent on exports. For Joerg Kraemer, chief economist at Commerzbank, the Ifo data for August will further increase the pressure on the ECB after the Eurotower president, Mario Draghi, from Jackson Hole Friday ‘evening, said that the ECB and’ ready to adjust its monetary policy, and to act to support the economy even beyond ‘of measures already announced in June, while cautioning that the central bank can not be replaced with governments and national structural reforms. “The positive economic scenario outlined by the ECB in 2015 – said Kraemer – with a rather dynamic growth of 1.7% or so, is crumbling.” For Kraemer, therefore, have increased the odds that the ECB decides on a massive program of securities purchases (Qe), even though the central bank will want to ‘see before the impact of the auctions Tltro in favor of the banks.
while remaining above the bar 100 points, reflecting the prevailing optimism among German companies, nevertheless, the Ifo index is now down from May and the sharp slowdown marked by German GDP in the second quarter (-0.2% according to the provisional figure), has further increased the uncertainty among entrepreneurs. At this point, according to most analysts, it is impossible to a strong rebound in the third quarter although the forecast for the end of 2014 remains a very positive growth, thanks to the driving of domestic demand, with the Ifo Institute has marginally raised the estimate in July to 2%.
“The companies – said Alexander Krueger, chief economist at Bankhaus Lampe – are adapting to the new environment for growth. The geopolitical factors will not disappear in the short term and European partners are not going as they should. ” Andreas Rees, chief economist of UniCredit Research for Germany, however, the decline in GDP in the second quarter “does not mark the beginning of a phase of continued weakness but ‘a unique event. Private consumption will continue to hold up well in media in the coming quarters, given the strong fundamentals “and further improvements in the labor market and real wages” will not disappear out of the blue, offsetting the negative psychological effect by geopolitics. “
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