A freeze on Italy in August. The cold winds coming from the United States and are blown by the rating agency Moody’s that, after the return to recession “technical” certificate Istat last week, revises downwards its growth estimates. Italy will close 2014 with a GDP contraction of 0.1% versus 0.5% previously estimated, and will miss both targets of government deficit / GDP ratio standing at 2.7% this year and next, with “significant risks” to exceed further. A cry of alarm for the government Renzi that in an interview with the Press and in an interview with the Financial Times had assured him: “I’m not going to exceed the limit of 3% . We hope to have a better growth in the second half, “and close with a deficit of 2.9%.
The rejection of Moody’s
“The recession will have a negative effect on fiscal policy and the political climate as a whole, both national and European level, “Moody’s noted in the note that size estimates of the Italian GDP to -0.1% for 2014,” Because the government forecasts growth of 0.8% for this year, the economy contracted threat the fiscal strength of the government, “the agency indicates that the note also emphasizes” the obstacles encountered in Italy make permanent reductions in spending due to domestic political pressures. ” The reference is to the recent statements by Carlo Cottarelli, the commissioner spending review, the fact that “the Parliament now plans to use a portion of the cuts from the spending review in order to finance new spending to 1.6 billion euro in 2015, rather than finance debt reduction through cuts permanent. ”
The EU: ‘Reforms needed, but decides Rome “
Even the EU Commission acts on the Italian case. And, in particular, issued by the Prime Minister to La Stampa and the Financial Times : “I do not take orders from Europe, the ECB or by the troika.” A spokesman in Brussels said: “It is with structural reforms, implemented effectively, you create the conditions for growth and employment ‘. But “the implementation of reforms is a matter for the state,”
The Wall Street Journal : “The recession? A challenge for Renzi “
” Italy has been in recession for three times in five years, “and the news of the fall of 0.2% of the Italian GDP in the second quarter,” is first and foremost a challenge for Italy and for the Prime Minister Matteo Renzi, “writes the The Wall Street Journal in an editorial published today signed by Simon Nixon. “Six months ago made a commitment to an ambitious agenda but has still not realized. Last week Renzi has publicly assured – writes the WSJ – an agreement on the reform of the Italian political system. But this is a small sign of a work of far-reaching reforms of market production and revision of a bureaucratic and judicial system that requires an increase in productivity. ”
The government’s counter-
Between Treasury and Palazzo Chigi we discuss the deal by weeks. Bring order to the jungle of the investee public is a priority. But in the end, as revealed in a backstage published in La Stampa, will be inevitable – and that’s why they are in the menu of possible cuts – intervene in tax deductions. Excluded (for now) those politically sensitive and supportive to growth (for children or mortgages) in the viewfinder there are minor ones: for veterinary expenses, the gym, the facilities in favor of this or that agricultural production, costs cemetery.
The superindex OSCE: “Positive Step”
Mixed signals, however, comes by the OSCE: the growth in the Eurozone confirmation “momentum building”, but in Germany continue the signs of a “loss of momentum”, while for Italy sets out a phase “positive”. So the superindex OECD in June, that the eurozone is stable (-0.04%) for Germany sees a decline of 0.23% on a sequential basis and for Italy an increase of 0.1%. Among individual countries, Italy recorded an increase in the index relative to 101.7 from 101.6 in May that “continues to show a trend of positive growth.” Slight improvement even for France with the superindex to 100.4 from 100.3. In the fall economic superindex Germany, to 100.2 from 100.4 in May. Stable at 101, the superindex of the Euro while that of the G7 countries drops to 100.5 from 100.6 in May.
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