The Ministry of Economy is working to put hands to the repayments to pensioners, after the Constitutional Court rejected the blockade of the revaluation of the pension , decided by the then government to Monti end of 2011 for the biennium 2012-2013. The technicians of the Ministry, assisted by Pier Carlo Padoan, are considering various solutions to avoid having to repay all 14 million euro, which according to the calculations would be needed to unlock all checks.
If you already Undersecretary Enrico Zanetti had revealed his disapproval of any refund checks even higher, unfairly treated, compared to the sacrifices imposed on future pensioners, the latest rumors that leaked from Via XX Settembre confirm the government’s intention to limit reimbursement Renzi grains only to pensions monthly amount up to three times the minimum, or up to the amount of EUR 1,442 per month, according to the values of 2012.
Hypothesis revaluation pensions in brackets
Basically, the mechanism developed by the executive would be the following: the reimbursement would be 100% for pensions up to 3 times the minimum, while the even 3 to 4 times (1500-2000 euro), the revaluation would be unlocked at 95% ; for pensions from 4 to 5 times the minimum allowance (€ 2,000-2,500), the refund would amount to 75% of the revaluation blocked, while for checks from 5 to 6 times more the minimum (€ 2,500-3,000), the release would be equal to 50%. No revaluation would be unlocked, however, that checks more than 6 times the minimum, that is, for those over 3,000 euro per month.
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With this reformulation, the government would respond to the lack of progressivity, that the consultation has shown in the block set four years ago. But the problems are not solved. There is an insurmountable limit to Palazzo Chigi: the more unexpected expense could not exceed 8 billion euro, ie 0.5% of GDP. According to government estimates, in fact, this year the ratio between deficit and GDP would stand at 2.5% from 2.6% initially expected.
Improved forecasts of 0.1% had talk about “treasure” Prime Minister Matteo Renzi and the same minister Padoan, while the European Commission had already warned that he would not frowned upon the use of savings expected only on interest on the public debt purposes other than those related to fiscal consolidation. Now, Brussels is alarm, so that the Commissioner for Monetary Affairs, Moscovici Pierre woman, put his hands on, declaring that whatever the cost of the operation of the refund, it will be covered.
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Public Accounts, but treasure. The government asks the EU deficit for another 6.4 billion
Conti public at risk with repayment pensions
And here’s a double edge for the Italian government: the overall burden could not burden the accounts this year to more than 8 billion, otherwise it would have breached the deficit limit of 3% of GDP, forcing the Commission to open a infringement procedure against Italy for excessive deficit. Even before formal fear the effects of such action on the part of Brussels, the real risk for the government Renzi would dissipate the political credit earned in recent months in Europe and the likely disappointment of financial markets.
But the real problem is that the European Commission could not give any room for maneuver, beyond that already offered to us by the law of stability in 2015 and 0.4% of GDP. In essence, the government could not exceed the limit of 2.6% of GDP on the deficit already agreed with the Commissioners, when they have, hopefully, just 1.5 billion to repay pensioners without any financial coverage.
Keep in mind, then, that the yields on Italian government bonds, as well as the other members of the Eurozone, appearing on the rise in recent sessions, revealing a trend possibly less optimistic than hoped for by the Italian Government, who had already recognized the savings arising from the issue of bonds at lower costs. It is likely, therefore, that there are even those savings already budgeted and that, therefore, the scope of the public accounts is reduced to zero.
As for the increase in government spending is one-off, due to a decision outside the will of the executive, it is unlikely that Brussels will give us new concessions, perhaps allowing us to raise the deficit from 2.6% of GDP to 3%. Therefore, O Renzi cover the burden with higher taxes and / or cuts in public spending or should take into account a clash with the Commission, which would not be of any help.
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